CNH-Ex: Conflict and Fisheries in the Lake Victoria Basin

该项目将调查东非维多利亚湖流域渔业、武装冲突和粮食安全之间的联系。维多利亚湖是非洲最大的淡水湖，拥有渔业，为4000多万人的粮食和生计安全做出了贡献。尼罗河鲈鱼和罗非鱼两种鱼类的引入，极大地改变了湖泊的生态。虽然引进的鱼类为渔民提供了收入，但它们显然导致了湖泊中许多本地物种的数量急剧下降。一个例外是沙丁鱼，它支持着湖中最大的渔业，是湖泊生态和依赖湖泊食物和收入的人类种群之间的关键纽带。粮食安全本质上与国内动乱息息相关，自20世纪90年代中期以来，东非一直是世界上受战争蹂躏最严重的地区之一。军事冲突极大地抑制了渔获量，这通过减少粮食供应和渔民的生计损失损害了粮食安全。粮食不安全反过来又会加剧政治暴力。该项目将调查维多利亚湖生态的变化如何影响粮食安全，以及冲突如何影响湖中的捕鱼。该项目与肯尼亚和乌干达的区域渔业组织合作，旨在a)加深对鱼类丰度、渔业渔获量和努力、冲突进程和粮食安全之间关系的理解；b)利用统计分析对鱼类丰度进行估计；c)通过动态结构方程模型确定系统中的重要联系。研究人员将使用地理信息系统将渔获量和努力与区域市场的粮食商品价格联系起来，并利用现有的冲突发生数据将价格、冲突和渔获量联系起来。这些努力将有助于理解自然资源在冲突中的作用和冲突对当地粮食安全的影响。目前迫切需要更好地了解维多利亚湖流域人类与自然系统之间的联系。湖岸上的人口迅速增长，加速了对生态系统服务的影响，如饮用水和灌溉用水以及作为食物的鱼类。这项研究将有助于理解自然资源和冲突、渔业生态以及自然和人类耦合系统的动态建模。该项目将发展美国和东非科学家之间的合作伙伴关系，并培养两名本科生研究人员的科学技能。此外，该项目将为渔业的可持续资源管理决策和政策提供信息，为数百万人提供粮食和生计安全。

This project will investigate the links between fisheries, armed conflict, and food security in the Lake Victoria Basin in eastern Africa. Lake Victoria, the largest freshwater lake in Africa, is home to fisheries that contribute to the food and livelihood security of over 40 million people. The introduction of two species of fish, Nile perch and tilapia, has greatly changed the ecology of the lake. While introduced fishes provide income for fishers, they have apparently caused dramatic declines in the abundance of many native species in the lake. One exception is the sardine-like mukene, which supports the largest fishery in the lake and serves as a critical link between the ecology of the lake and the human populations that depend on the lake for food and income. Food security is inherently tied to civil unrest and eastern Africa has been one of the most war-torn regions of the world since the mid-1990s. Martial conflict significantly suppresses fish catch, which harms food security via decreased food availability and loss of livelihood among fishers. Food insecurity can in turn accelerate political violence. This project will investigate how changes in the ecology of Lake Victoria affect food security, and how conflict affects fishing in the Lake. In collaboration with regional fisheries organizations in Kenya and Uganda, the project aims to a) develop understanding of the relationships between fish abundance, fishery catch and effort, conflict processes, and food security; b) generate estimates of fish abundance using statistical analyses; and c) identify the important links in the system through dynamic structural equation modeling. Researchers will employ geographic information systems to relate fish catch and effort to food commodity prices in regional markets, and use existing data on the occurrence of conflict to relate prices, conflict, and catch.These efforts will contribute significantly to understanding the role of natural resources in conflict and conflict effects on local food security. There is an urgent need to improve understanding of the links between human and natural systems in the Lake Victoria basin. The human population is growing rapidly on the shore of the lake, accelerating impacts on ecosystem services such as water for drinking and irrigation and fishes for food. This study will contribute to understanding of natural resources and conflict, fisheries ecology, and dynamic modeling of coupled natural and human systems. The project will develop partnerships between U.S. and eastern African scientists and develop the scientific skills of two undergraduate researchers. Moreover, the project will inform sustainable resource management decisions and policies for fisheries that provide food and livelihood security for millions.