CAREER: Dynamic Decision Theory and Bounded Rationality

这个项目提高了我们对动态决策和有限理性模型的理解。通过对两类随机动态选择规则的公理化描述，研究动态随机选择问题。这两个规则有许多共同的性质，在静态问题中是一致的。关键的区别在于选择规则是否表现出灵活性偏好（偏好较大的选择集）或错误厌恶（偏好较小的选择集）。该研究的另一个组成部分是研究在认知约束下运作的代理的市场互动，如有限的注意力、不完美的记忆和有限的形成应急计划的能力。PI发展了一种新的理论来解释市场机制如何分配代理人的注意力。该模型产生了许多预测：有限的市场参与，事后消费异质性，以及与基本面相比资产价格的高波动性。PI还研究了可以从递归实用新型中导出的时间偏好的两个维度。目标是推导和分析代理愿意为消费不确定性的早期解决支付的溢价，并检查厌恶自相关的确切形式。该奖项的教育部分包括使用一种新的合作开放科学方法来开发决策理论教科书，该教科书将免费在线提供。计划中的方法也有助于研究生教育，使研究生成为教科书的作者。该项目为在实践中使用的模型提供了基础，从而有助于我们理解它们的优缺点。它还分析了偏好和选择的新维度。这些模型是理解经济学中许多基本问题的关键。该项目产生了更广泛的影响，因为增加了新的、更好的分析工具，提高了我们制定和评估经济政策的能力。

This project improves our understanding of models of dynamic decisions and bounded rationality. The research will consider issues of dynamic stochastic choice by providing axiomatic characterizations of two types of stochastic dynamic choice rules. These two rules have many properties in common and coincide in static problems. The key distinction is whether the choice rule exhibits a preference for flexibility (preferring larger choice sets) or error aversion (preferring smaller sets). Another component of the research studies market interaction of agents operating under cognitive constraints such as limited attention, imperfect memory, and bounded ability to form contingent plans. The PI develops a new theory to explain how the market mechanism allocates agents' attention. The model yields a number of predictions: limited market participation, ex post consumption heterogeneity, and high volatility of asset prices as compared to the fundamentals. The PI also studies two dimensions of temporal preferences that can be derived from a recursive utility model. The goal is to derive and analyze the premium that an agent is willing to pay for early resolution of consumption uncertainty and to examine the exact form of the aversion to autocorrelation.The educational component of the award includes the use of a new collaborative open science approach to developing a decision theory textbook that will be made available online at no charge. The planned approach also contributes to graduate education by enlisting graduate students in textbook authorship.The project provides foundations for models that are being used in practice, thereby contributing to our understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. It also analyzes novel dimensions of preferences and choice. These models are key to understanding many fundamental issues in economics. The project yields broader impact because adding new and better tools for analysis improves our ability to formulate and evaluate economic policy.