Valuation of Investments in Building Energy Improvements under Uncertainties

本研究的目的是建立一个投资评估模型来评估不确定性下的建筑节能项目，该模型考虑了能源价格的未来以及节能技术的成本和性能。该投资评价模型将确定建筑节能项目的最佳投资时机。所提出的模型基于实物期权公式。将开发一种替代方法来估计投资的波动性，以反映不确定性对节能项目价值的影响。提出的投资估值模型将被用来检验不确定性如何潜在地影响决策者在处理节能项目时的行为，并通过这种方式提供一些理论见解。将利用实际的节能项目来完善和验证所开发的模型。如果成功，该项目将为研究界提供一个有充分依据的投资评估模型，该模型将为节能投资量身定做。这项研究将帮助投资者做出艰难的节能决策，从而增加长期实现雄心勃勃的国家节能目标的可能性。通过举办研讨会，研究成果将传达给建筑能源专业人员。这项研究从佐治亚州理工学院科学、数学和计算机一体化教育中心(CEISMC)和罗克代尔高中(一所高度需要标题I学校)的联合项目中招募了大量代表不足、经济困难的学生，他们专注于科学、技术、工程和数学(STEM)学习活动。这项活动旨在提高高中生对能源效率的认识。高中生和他们的老师将在佐治亚州科技经济可持续建筑环境实验室举行为期四周的节能建筑研究新兵训练营。

The objective of this research is to create an investment valuation model to assess building energy-saving projects under uncertainty that takes into account the future of energy prices and the cost and performance of energy-saving technologies. This investment valuation model will determine the optimal time of investment for the building energy-saving project. The proposed model is based on a real options formulation. An alternative method will be developed to estimate the volatility of the investment that captures the impact of the uncertainty on the value of the energy-saving project. The proposed investment valuation model will be used to examine how uncertainty potentially influences the behavior of decision makers when dealing with energy-saving projects and in this way provide some theoretical insights. Actual energy-saving projects will be utilized to refine and validate the developed model.If successful, this project will provide the research community with a well-founded investment valuation model that will be tailored for energy-saving investments. This research will assist investors to make hard energy-saving decisions that increase the likelihood of achieving ambitious national energy reduction goals over the long-term. By holding workshops, the research outcomes will be communicated to building energy professionals. This research engages a large number of underrepresented, economically disadvantaged students from the joint program between the Georgia Tech Center for Education Integrating Science, Mathematics and Computing (CEISMC) and the Rockdale High School (a high needs Title I school) that focuses in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) learning activities. This activity is intended to raise awareness about energy efficiency of high school students. High school students and their teachers will be hosted in the Georgia Tech Economics of Sustainable Built Environment Lab for a four-week research boot camp in energy-efficient buildings.