Doctoral Dissertation Research: Conditions and Courses of Genocide

SES-1303534伊丽莎白波义耳霍利·尼塞斯·鲍姆明尼苏达大学双城分校种族灭绝不是一个随机事件，而是一个系统地展开的过程。 初步工作和现有的文献表明，灭绝种族是可以预测的，甚至有一天可以通过社会学和犯罪学的解释加以改善。然而，许多问题仍然存在，本文试图回答其中两个问题：1）种族灭绝在社会，国家和国际层面的原因是什么？2)是什么原因造成了种族灭绝期间的时间和区域差异？为了评估导致种族灭绝的原因，本文首先对过去50年来所有国家种族灭绝的先决条件进行了定量分析。然后，为了分析种族灭绝是如何展开的，它转向卢旺达，波斯尼亚和苏丹种族灭绝的案例研究。 每个案例研究都包括对一段时间内和按区域分列的灭绝种族暴力行为的定量分析。 为了更好地理解暴力行为变化背后的原因，它还借鉴了历史分析和每个案例20次访谈，最近的著作表明，社会学和犯罪学对种族灭绝的研究有很大的希望，尽管社会学家和犯罪学家在很大程度上忽视了对这种犯罪罪行的研究。 本文借鉴这些文献，以更好地了解两个方面的种族灭绝？它的起因以及它是如何展开的。 过去几十年来，政治学家和历史学家已经开始探讨种族灭绝的原因，尽管大多数研究集中在特定案件的复杂性以及政治领导人在计划和实施种族灭绝中的重要性。这种深入的分析是重要的，尽管很少有学者实际评估导致灭绝种族发生的一般因素。这些因素可能包括个别领导人所起作用以外的因素，包括社会因素（如社会多样性）、国家因素（如政府类型）和国际因素（如通过贸易或组织成员身份参与国际体系），尽管国际体系的相互依赖性日益增强，但这些因素在种族灭绝方面尚未得到彻底研究。 虽然这些因素与种族灭绝的最初发生有关，但本研究报告也对种族灭绝事件进行了分解，并将种族灭绝概念化为一个过程。 现存的关于种族灭绝原因的文献侧重于导致种族灭绝的原因;然而，将种族灭绝视为一个无差别的事件，错过了真正理解暴力的机会。很少有研究探讨种族灭绝的区域和时间变化，也没有研究比较广泛的影响。本论文将产生定量和定性的数据，将用于更好地了解种族灭绝。 这样的研究有可能为世界各地的政策制定者、智库和研究中心提供信息，帮助他们建立种族灭绝的早期预警系统。 了解灭绝种族的过程也可以为国际行为者和地方组织干预灭绝种族提供信息。 因此，调查结果将通过出版物和在地方和国际会议上的会议介绍予以传播。 值得注意的是，共同主要研究员与卢旺达政府防止种族灭绝委员会和波斯尼亚的一个类似组织进行了实习，这两个组织都对研究结果感兴趣。 此外，共同主要负责人一直与种族灭绝观察和其他几个非政府组织保持联系，并将确保传播研究结果。

SES-1303534Elizabeth Boyle Hollie Nyseth Brehm University of Minnesota-Twin CitiesGenocide is not a random event but a process that unfolds systematically. Preliminary work and existing literature have suggested that genocide can be predicted and perhaps even one day ameliorated using a combination of sociological and criminological explanations. Yet, many questions remain, and this dissertation seeks to answer two of them: 1) What are the causes of genocide at societal, state, and international levels? 2) What accounts for temporal and regional variation during genocide? To assess what leads to genocide, the dissertation begins with a quantitative analysis of the preconditions of genocide in all countries over the last 50 years. Then, to analyze how genocides unfold, it turns to case studies of the genocides in Rwanda, Bosnia, and Sudan. Each case study includes quantitative analysis of genocidal violence over time and by region. To better understand reasons behind variation in violence, it also draws upon historical analysis and 20 interviews per case.Recent works have suggested that sociology and criminology hold much promise for the study of genocide, though sociologists and criminologists have largely neglected the study of this crime of crimes. This dissertation draws upon these literatures to better understand two aspects of genocide?its causes and how it unfolds. Political scientists and historians have begun to address the causes of genocide over the last several decades, though the majority of research focuses on the intricacies of particular cases and the importance of political leaders in planning and implementing genocide. Such in-depth analyses are important, though few scholars have actually assessed the general factors that contribute to the occurrence of genocide. These may include factors beyond the roles played by individual leaders, including societal factors (such as societal diversity), state factors (such as the type of government), and international factors (such as engagement in the international system through trade or organizational membership), which have not been thoroughly studied in regard to genocide despite the growing interdependency of the international system. While these factors are considered in relation to the initial occurrence of genocide, this study also disaggregates the events of genocides and conceptualizes genocide as a process. Extant literature on the causes of genocide focuses on what leads to genocide; however, viewing genocide as an undifferentiated event misses the opportunity to truly understand the violence. Few studies have explored regional and temporal variation in genocide, and no studies have done this comparativelyBroader Impacts. This dissertation will produce both quantitative and qualitative data that will be used to better understand genocide. Such research has the potential to inform policy makers, think tanks, and research centers around the world as they strive to create early warning systems for genocide. Understanding the process of genocide could also inform interventions in genocide by international actors as well as local organizations. Accordingly, the findings will be disseminated through publications and conference presentations at both local and international conferences. Notably, the co-PI has interned with the Rwandan Government Genocide Prevention Commission and a similar organization in Bosnia, and both organizations are interested in the results of the study. In addition, the co-PI has been in contact with Genocide Watch and several other nongovernmental organizations and will ensure that the findings from the research are disseminated.