Collaborative Research: P2C2--Reconstructing Hydroclimatic Asian Monsoon Variability for the Past Millennium from Tree Rings: Myanmar and Vicinity

超过10亿人依赖亚洲季风降雨，但由于观测数据的差距，了解其年际、十年和百年尺度调制背后的动态受到阻碍。厄尔尼诺-南方涛动，沿着印度洋偶极子模式和其他现象，可能在南亚和东南亚造成严重的干旱和洪水，并可能随着预计的变暖而加剧。缅甸周边地区似乎代表了亚洲季风主要组成部分之间的枢纽线或过渡，但迄今为止基本上没有记录。由于最近的政治变化，国际科学家现在可以进入缅甸，来自哥伦比亚大学拉蒙多尔蒂地球观测站和伍兹霍尔海洋研究所的这支研究队伍是第一批进入缅甸的研究人员。这项研究将从缅甸和邻近的中国和泰国的柚木和其他物种中产生多个树木年轮记录，这些记录已被证明可以记录该地区的水文变化。对区域季风的模拟研究将补充实地和分析工作。这项研究将提供亚洲季风重要过渡区的一些首批数据，从而改善目前对过去一千年季风动力学的理解和建模。这一信息对于未来规划和缓解季风极端情况至关重要。与来自缅甸、泰国、中国和新西兰的科学家建立了强有力的国际伙伴关系。研究所将在哥伦比亚大学接待和培训几名亚洲合作者，并通过在伍兹霍尔海洋研究所的暑期实习为本科生提供研究经验。此外，这项研究将继续扩大到来自曼哈顿科学和数学中心的内城学生。在该项目的最后一年，将在缅甸举办一个关于与季风有关的气候学的讲习班。这项研究的结果将特别直接关系到那些生活在亚洲季风直接影响范围内的弱势群体的福利、粮食安全和森林管理需要，这项赠款由国家科学基金会国际和综合活动办公室共同资助。

More than a billion people depend upon the Asian monsoon rains, but understanding the dynamics behind its modulations on interannual, decadal and centennial scales is hampered by gaps in observational data. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, along with the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and other phenomena, can cause severe drought and flood conditions over South and Southeast Asia, which may intensify with projected warming. The region surrounding Myanmar appears to represent a hinge line or transition between major components of the Asian monsoon, but until now has remained largely undocumented. Due to recent political changes Myanmar is now accessible to international scientists, and this team of researchers from the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution is among the first to gain such access. This research will generate multiple tree-ring records from teak and other species in Myanmar and adjacent China and Thailand that have been shown to document hydrological variability in the region. The field and analytical work will be complemented by modeling studies of the regional monsoon. The research will provide some of the first data from an important transitional zone for the Asian monsoon, thereby improving present understanding and modeling of monsoon dynamics over the past millennium. This information is critical for future planning and mitigation of monsoon extremes. There are strong international partnerships with scientists from Myanmar, Thailand, China, and New Zealand. The PIs will host and train several Asian collaborators at Columbia University and offer research experience for undergraduate students through summer internships at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. In addition, the research will continue their outreach to inner city students from the Manhattan Center for Science and Mathematics. A workshop in Myanmar on monsoon-related climatology will be conducted in the project's final year. The results of this research will be particularly and directly relevant to the welfare, food security and forest management needs of those vulnerable populations who live within the direct influence of the Asian monsoon.This grant is being co-funded by NSF's Office of International and Integrative Activities.