Modeling the Effects of Species Range Shifts

气候变化正在对许多生物产生深远的影响。 该项目的目的是开发，分析和使用一类新的机械模型，积分差分方程，包括生长，扩散和气候驱动的范围变化，以研究和预测气候变化对动植物种群的影响。 积分差分方程将确定种群在变化环境中的持久性的问题简化为简单的特征值问题。 研究人员将分析气候驱动的范围转移对具有复杂生活史的年龄和阶段结构种群的影响，对现实几何形状进行二维范围转移模型的分析，建立和分析具有明确栖息地质量函数的模型，并建立和分析包含种间相互作用的范围转移模型。 将进行敏感性分析，以确定在不断变化的环境中，哪些人口阶段对持久性的影响最大。 作为对气候变暖的反应，许多物种已经将它们的活动范围向纬度的两极转移，或者向海拔的高处转移。 该项目的目的是开发数学模型和工具，帮助我们确定哪些物种可以继续跟上气候驱动的栖息地变化，哪些物种处于危险之中。 研究人员将从包括增长和人口统计，扩散和气候驱动的空间变化的模型开始，并将这些模型扩展到包括年龄和阶段结构，复杂的生活史，种群相互作用，栖息地质量和现实的几何形状。 这些扩展将帮助我们更准确地评估气候变化对动植物种群的影响。

Climate change is having a profound effect on many organisms. The purpose of this project is to develop, analyze, and use a new class of mechanistic models, integrodifference equations, that include growth, dispersal, and climate-driven range shifts in order to study and predict the effects of climate change on animal and plant populations. Integrodifference equations reduce the problem of determining the persistence of a population in a changing environment to a simple eigenvalue problem. Researchers will analyze the effects of climate-driven range shifts on age- and stage-structured populations with complex life histories, perform analyses of two-dimensional range-shift models on realistic geometries, build and analyze models with explicit habitat quality functions, and build and analyze range-shift models that contain interspecific interactions. Sensitivity analyses will be performed in order to determine which demographic stages have the strongest influence on persistence in a changing environment.The Earth is getting warmer. In response to this warming, many species have shifted their ranges poleward in latitude or upward in elevation. The purpose of this project is to develop mathematical models and tools that will help us determine which species can continue to keep pace with climate-driven habitat shifts and which species are at risk. Researchers will start with models that include growth and demography, dispersal, and climate-driven spatial shifts and extend these models to include age and stage structure, complicated life histories, population interactions, habitat quality, and realistic geometries. These extensions will help us more accurately assess the effects of climate change on animal and plant populations.