Coastal SEES (Track 2), Collaborative: Toward Sustainable Urban Estuaries in the Anthropocene

该项目将结合环境和社会经济因素，评估河口形态的人为变化如何影响城市河口的泥沙通量，以及随之而来的自然状况的变化如何影响河口的可持续性。水动力学、泥沙输送和地貌动力学的地球物理模型将与评估生态系统服务的经济模型相结合，以研究特拉华州和哈德逊-拉里坦河口系统这两个研究地点。这项工作将包括野外观测、历史分析、高分辨率物理模型、地貌动力学模型和人-自然系统的耦合模型。对河口物理过程的研究将导致应用代表这些河口的水动力学和现代地貌动力学的动力学模型，特别是河口-湿地对河道加深和海岸线改变的耦合响应。社会经济分析将提供自然-人类系统过去、现在和未来状态下的生态系统服务的量化。这项研究的结果将是自然-人类状态轨迹的耦合模型，该模型量化了人类改变河口制度的行动、物理系统的反应以及改变的生态系统服务价值变化之间的反馈。拟议的工作将确定城市河口可持续管理的相关和适当的自然和人类尺度，并确定一个决策框架，以便能够对世代之间的社会经济价值进行评估，以便能够根据可持续发展对备选预测结果进行比较和排序。这项研究的独特贡献是将河口物理过程的高级分析和建模与社会经济分析相结合，以预测人-自然耦合系统的轨迹。由于河口生态系统对人类影响的敏感性，以及河口生态系统服务的关键人类因素，对河口可持续性的评估需要这种类型的耦合分析。重要的智力进步也将在子学科中发生。河口及其周围湿地的形态模型将提供河口三维水动力和泥沙运动与系统尺度地貌动力学的新耦合。社会经济分析将在人与自然相结合的情况下分析政策、经济和生态系统服务之间的联系。这项研究将制定一个导致河口可持续管理的决策框架。这些模型将为未来城市河口经济发展规划、环境管理和风险管理提供决策工具的原型。与负责管理哈德逊-拉里坦和特拉华州河口资源的市、区、州和联邦各级的政策专业人员接触，将推动对人-自然系统进行系统规模的综合分析。向更广泛的社区传播方法的目的是形成未来关于整个美国和世界范围内河口可持续性的分析和决策。该研究计划通过本科生院校研究经验(REU)计划，为6名研究生、1名博士后研究员和本科生提供专业发展。这个多样化而又一体化的项目团队将培养强大的跨学科合作和教育经验，为学生未来在可持续发展科学领域的职业生涯做好准备。该项目得到了NSF海岸SEES(科学、工程和教育促进可持续发展)计划的支持。

This project will evaluate how anthropogenic changes in estuarine morphology affect sediment fluxes in urban estuaries, and how consequent shifts in the physical regime affect estuarine sustainability, based on a combination of environmental and socio-economic factors. Geophysical models of hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphodynamics will be combined with economic models that value ecosystem services to examine two study sites, the Delaware and Hudson-Raritan estuary systems. The work will incorporate field observations, historical analysis, high-resolution physical modeling, morphodynamic modeling, and coupled modeling of the human-natural system. Studies of estuarine physical processes will lead to the application of dynamical models that represent the hydrodynamics and recent morphodynamics in these estuaries, with particular emphasis on coupled estuary-wetland responses to channel deepening and shoreline modifications. Socio-economic analyses will provide a quantification of the ecosystem services under past, present, and future states of the natural-human system. The culmination of the research will be a coupled model of the natural-human state trajectory, which quantifies the feedback between human actions to alter the estuarine regime, the response of the physical system, and the changes in values of the altered ecosystem services. The proposed work will define the relevant and appropriate natural and human scales for sustainable management of an urban estuary and identify a decision framework that permits the assessment of socio-economic values across generations such that alternative predictive outcomes can be compared and ordered in terms of their sustainability. The unique contribution of this research is the quantitative integration of advanced analysis and modeling of physical processes in estuaries with socio-economic analyses, in order to predict the trajectory of the coupled human-natural system. Assessment of sustainability in estuaries requires this type of coupled analysis because of the sensitivity of the physical regime to human impacts and because of the critical human dimension of ecosystem services in estuaries. Important intellectual advances will also occur within the sub-disciplines. The morphological model of the estuary and surrounding wetlands will provide novel coupling of three-dimensional estuarine hydrodynamics and sediment transport with system-scale morphodynamics. The socio-economic analysis will analyze the linkage between policy, economics and ecosystem services within the context of the coupled human-natural regime.This research will develop a framework for decision-making leading to the sustainable management of estuaries. The models will provide prototypes for future decision-making tools for planning of urban estuarine economic development, environmental management, and risk management. Engagement with policy professionals at the municipal, regional, state and federal levels with responsibility for management of the Hudson-Raritan and Delaware estuarine resources will advance the use of system-scale integrated analysis of the human-natural system. Communication of methodologies to the broader community is intended to shape future analysis and decision-making concerning estuarine sustainability throughout the U.S. and worldwide. The research program provides professional development for six graduate students, one post-doctoral investigator, and undergraduates through the institutional research experience for undergraduates (REU) programs. The diverse-yet-integrated project team will foster strong interdisciplinary collaborations and educational experiences that will prepare the students for future careers in sustainability science.This project is supported under NSF's Coastal SEES (Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability) program.