RAPID: Natural Disasters and Risk, Time, and Trust Preferences

这项快速反应研究（Rapid）资助将使研究人员能够开始调查生活应对策略是否会在重大自然灾害（如俄克拉荷马州摩尔市的五级龙卷风）发生后发生变化。2013年5月20日，一场五级龙卷风袭击了俄克拉荷马城郊的摩尔。这场龙卷风的宽度超过一英里，造成了巨大的破坏，24人死亡。这项研究将调查像这样的自然灾害是否会改变一个人的行为倾向；1)对未来进行思考和规划；2)或多或少地接受风险；3)或多或少地信任政府和邻居。了解灾后风险、时间和信任偏好的变化是很重要的，因为这些偏好会直接影响个人和政府在灾后投资重建、恢复和未来灾难准备方面的决策。我们将使用结合时间和风险偏好实验的调查，以及标准化的信任问题，从直接受这场灾难影响的个人以及受灾地区以外的个人那里获得数据。具体来说，我们将调查三个人群；1)受2013年龙卷风事件直接影响的个人（即生命损失，伤害或财产损失），2)经历过该事件但未受到直接影响的周边社区的个人，以及3)居住在俄克拉何马城大都会区类似（人口统计学）社区的个人，但最近没有经历过重大龙卷风事件。比较这三个不同样本的反应应该能让我们确定个人对风险、时间或信任的看法是否有重大变化。此外，将在大约9个月后完成第二次调查，以确定对风险、时间或信任偏好的影响是短期的，还是持久的。这些信息对于理解和指导个人和政府投资于私人和公共重建和恢复工作的意愿可能非常重要。例如，如果一场灾难导致受害者不那么重视未来，而是在灾难发生后立即关注这里和现在，那么建议受害者推迟做出重大的再投资决定，以保护他们的长期福利，可能是明智的。这项研究还有助于了解哪种类型的人最容易受到灾后生活技能转变的影响，这样就可以针对那些风险最大的人提供咨询。最后，这笔赠款的研究结果可以纳入一个更广泛的灾害研究项目，旨在确定政府层面在应急准备和基础设施投资方面的变化，以减少龙卷风造成的死亡。

This Rapid Response Research (RAPID) Grant will enable researchers to begin investigating whether life coping strategies change in the aftermath of a significant natural disaster such as the category five tornado in Moore, Oklahoma. On May 20, 2013 a category five tornado struck the Oklahoma City suburb of Moore. The tornado, more than a mile wide, resulted in massive damage and 24 fatalities. This research will investigate whether a natural disaster such as this alters a person's propensity to; 1) think and plan for the future or 2) accept more or less risk or 3) trust government and neighbors more or less. Knowledge about what happens to risk, time and trust preferences after a disaster is important since these preferences can directly affect individual and government post-disaster decisions about investing in rebuilding, recovery and future disaster preparation. We will use surveys that incorporate time and risk preference experiments as well as standardized trust questions to get data from individuals directly affected by this disaster as well as individuals outside the affected areas. Specifically, we will survey three populations; 1) individuals impacted directly (i.e., loss of life, injury or property damage) by the 2013 tornado event, 2) individuals from the surrounding community who experienced the event, but were not directly impacted, and 3) individuals residing in a similar (demographically) community in the Oklahoma City metro area, but which has not experienced a significant tornado event recently. Comparing the responses of these three different samples should allow us to identify any significant changes in individuals' views on risk, time or trust. In addition, there will be a second survey completed approximately 9 months later to see if any impacts on risk, time or trust preferences are short-term only or if they seem persistent. This information is potentially very important in understanding and helping to guide both individuals' and governments' willingness to invest in private and public rebuilding and recovery efforts. For example, if a disaster causes victims to put less importance on the future and focus on the here and now right after disasters, it may be prudent to counsel victims to hold off making major reinvestment decisions in order to protect their long-run welfare. The research may also help understand which types of individuals are most susceptible to post-disaster life-skill shifts, so that such counseling can be targeted towards those most at risk. Finally, the findings from this grant can be integrated into a broader disaster research program designed to identify government-level changes in emergency preparedness and infrastructure investments that can reduce tornado fatalities.