Urban patterns

该项目旨在模拟城市模式和热应力之间的相互关系。城市内的热应激风险是城市气候、城市居民的脆弱性和详细的城市物理结构的函数。最近的研究证明，建筑密度、结构和形式以及绿地的可用性在很大程度上影响着城市居民区的蓄热能力。目前，规划中的缓解概念开始面临热应激风险。然而，人们对这些措施的有效性知之甚少。关于住房决策的行为改变形式的适应热应激风险的复杂的个别措施几乎不被理解，需要加以解决。模型5.2侧重于利用不同的模型技术在不同的空间尺度上模拟城市模式、热胁迫风险以及适应和缓解措施之间的相互作用。(1)对于全市模型，我们结合了系统动力学和元胞自动机，从规划的角度考虑了家庭动态、居住选择、土地利用变化和缓解措施。模拟城市格局，分析热应激概率的变化。此外，我们结束了反馈，描述了所涉及的缓解措施对城市模式和热应激风险的影响。(2)在建筑尺度上，应用基于主体的模型来学习由于复杂的个体交互而导致的住房决策的变化。绘制并分析了空间格局和热应激风险适应对空间分布的影响。研究结果将为复杂决策和系统理解提供洞察力。对未来情景的模拟提供了作为缓解和适应未来热应激风险的结果的城市模式的方向，反之亦然，通过什么可以确定缓解和适应措施的有效性。通过结合不同的模型技术，将实施一种新的方法论方法。

This project aims at modelling the interrelations of urban patterns and heat stress. Heat stress risk within a city is a function of urban climate, the vulnerability of city dwellers and the detailed physical urban structure. The building density, structure and form as well as the availability of green spaces influence heat storage in urban neighbourhoods in great measure as recent studies proof. Mitigation concepts by planning are starting to face heat stress risks currently. However, little is known about the effectiveness of those measures. Complex individual measures of adaptation to heat stress risks in form of behavioural change regarding housing decisions are barely understood and need to be addressed. RM 5.2 focuses on utilizing different model techniques to simulate the interaction of urban patterns, heat stress risk and measures of adaptation and mitigation on different spatial scales. (1) For the citywide model we combine system dynamics and cellular automaton to incorporate household dynamics, residential choice, land-use change and mitigation measures in terms of planning. Urban patterns are simulated to analyze shifts of heat stress probability. Further, we close the feedback describing effects on urban patterns and heat stress risks as a consequence of involved mitigation measures. (2) On the building scale an agent-based model is applied to learn from changing housing decisions due to complex individual interactions. Consequences on the spatial distribution are mapped and analyzed regarding spatial patterns and heat stress risk adaptation. The research results will provide insights in complex decision-making and system understanding. Simulations of future scenarios deliver directions of urban patterns as a consequence of mitigation of and adaptation to future heat stress risks and vice versa by what the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation measures can be determined. By the combination of different model techniques a new methodological approach will be implemented.