Regional Climate Resilience and Sensitivity in the Tropics and Subtropics

这项研究的目的是利用对不断发展的全球变暖信号的观测，更好地了解气候系统对气候强迫的敏感性和弹性。这项研究将侧重于热带和亚热带气候系统对热带/亚热带强迫的反应，以及区域尺度的气候过程。一些地区在温室气体强迫下对变化的适应能力更强，而其他地区是否更容易受到同样压力的影响？如果是，原因何在？哪些地区性物理过程会产生或抵制变化？研究活动将对卫星时代观测到的气候变化的分析与区域气候模拟结合起来，以增进对热带/亚热带气候如何在一系列时间尺度上对热带强迫作出反应的基本了解。分析的重点是热带和亚热带(35°S到35°N)，并从深入研究地表热量收支的变化开始。将包括多个数据集，包括大气和海洋再分析以及卫星观测，以评估置信度。在过程研究中使用了区域气候模式的模拟，包括大气和海洋之间的耦合和不耦合，以模拟和进一步评估各种气候过程的作用。这一努力将深入了解气候系统的敏感性和弹性，重点是热带和亚热带地区。这会产生更广泛的影响。

The objective of this study is to use observations of the developing global warming signal to better understand sensitivity and resilience within the climate system to climate forcing. The study will focus on the tropical and subtropical climate system's response to tropical/subtropical forcing, and on regional-scale climate processes. Are some regions more resilient to change under greenhouse gas forcing, while other regions more vulnerable to the same forcing? If so, why? What regional physical processes operate to produce or resist change? The research activity combines an analysis of observed climate change during the satellite era with regional climate modeling to improve fundamental understanding of how the tropical/subtropical climate responds to tropical forcing over a range of time scales. The focus is on the tropics and subtropics (35°S to 35°N), and the analysis begins with an in-depth investigation of changes in the surface heat budget. Multiple datasets, including atmospheric and ocean reanalyses and satellite observations, will be included to evaluate confidence. Simulations using regional climate models, with and without coupling between the atmosphere and oceans, are used in process studies to simulate and further evaluate the role of various climate processes.This effort will shed insights into sensitivity and resilience in the climate system, emphasizing the tropical and subtropical region. This has substantial broader impacts.