Macroeconomics of Labor Market Sorting

假设有一天，美国的所有工人都被随机分配到所有现有的工作岗位上。这会对产出产生影响吗？答案似乎很可能是肯定的。这表明，总产出和生产率取决于个别工人对特定工作的实际分配。该项目扩展了最先进的工人跨职业分类理论，将工人在受雇时寻找更好工作的能力包括在内。然后，它表明，只使用常规可用的关于工资和劳动力市场转换率的匹配雇主-雇员数据，就有可能恢复任何观察到的雇主-雇员匹配的产出，以及将任何工人转移到经济中任何一家公司对产出、生产率和工资的影响。所提出的模型和计量方法将被用来为一些经典但尚未回答的经济问题提供实质性的经验答案。该项目的智力价值在于以下几点。(1)提出了一种基于在线搜索的配对模型，并证明了该模型的非参数辨识性。(2)PI利用计算机科学的最新进展来开发算法，以在考虑到现有数据集的潜在限制的情况下在实践中实施所提出的识别策略。(3)PI将为在均衡模型的背景下回答重要的经验问题提供理论方法。(4)国际和平研究所将为这些问题提供实质性的答复。该项目将产生广泛的影响。(1)为研究劳动力市场中的分类问题提供了新的模型和实证方法。(2)它将开发并向公众提供使这项研究成为可能的计算工具。(3)使用这些工具获得的新的实证结果将提供对基本经济问题的更好理解，并有可能对现有公共政策的设计和评估产生重大影响。从根本上说，PI显示了美国政府如何利用它已经获得的数据，能够克服劳动力市场的摩擦，改善工人的就业分配。这可能最终会使美国的经济竞争力大幅提升。研究结果还将为失业保险等政策的优化设计提供参考。(4)它将为本科生和研究生提供开发和应用这些工具和方法的培训。(5)这项研究的成果将在著名的国家和国际学术和政策会议和研讨会上发表。它们也可能成为高级课程阅读清单上的标准条目。

Suppose one day all workers in the U.S. were randomly reallocated across all existing jobs. Would there be any effect on output? It seems likely that the answer is ``yes''. This suggests that aggregate output and productivity depend on the actual allocation of individual workers to particular jobs. This project extends the state-of-the-art theory of sorting of workers across jobs to include the ability of workers to search for better jobs while employed. It then shows that, using only routinely available matched employer-employee data on wages and labor market transition rates, it is possible to recover the output of any observed employer-employee match and the consequences for output, productivity, and wages of moving any worker to any firm in the economy. The proposed model and measurement method will be used to provide substantive empirical answers to a number of classic but yet unanswered economic questions. The intellectual merit of the project lies in the following. (1) The PI develops an assortative matching model with on-the-job search and proves its nonparametric identification. (2) The PI draws on the recent advances in computer science to develop algorithms to implement the proposed identification strategy in practice given the potential limitations of existent data sets. (3) The PI will provide the theoretical methodology for answering important empirical questions in the context of an equilibrium model. (4) The PI will provide substantive answers to these questions. The project will have a broad impact. (1) It will provide a new model and empirical methodology for studying sorting in the labor market. (2) It will develop and and make publicly available the computational tools that enable this study. (3) New empirical findings obtained using these tools will provide a better understanding of fundamental economic issues and have a potential to substantially impact the design and evaluation of existing public policies. Fundamentally, the PI shows how the US government, using the data it already has access to, can to overcome frictions in the labor market and improve allocation of workers to jobs. This may eventually result in a substantial improvement in economic competitiveness of the United States. The results will also inform optimal design of policies, such as unemployment insurance. (4) It will provide training to graduate and postgraduate students in the development and applications of these tools and methods. (5) The results of this research will be presented at prominent national and international academic and policy conferences and seminars. They are also likely to become a standard entry on the reading lists in advanced courses.