Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Causes and Representative Consequences of Invalid Voting

该项目调查无效投票的原因，这是民主发展的一个重要问题。在哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔和秘鲁最近的选举中，每五个选民中就有一个以上的人去投票站，收到选票，但没有投票给国会候选人。在世界各地，公民在不同程度上参加投票，然后选择不行使他们最基本的民主权利，而是投空白或错误标记的选票。然而，尽管这种现象经常发生，但人们对谁投了这些“无效”票以及为什么投这些票知之甚少。该项目评估了整个拉丁美洲地区故意无效投票的潜在原因，并使用混合方法方法研究了政治家对这种做法的反应。首先，利用AmericasBarometer和选举制度比较研究收集的公民跨国调查数据，该项目评估了无效投票行为的个人层面的解释。具体而言，支持低政治知识，政治不满，无效投票之间的关系。第二个系列的分析采用了原始数据集，以解决精英策略的问题，以应对无效投票。特别是，本分析测试的假设，在未来的政党竞争的战略，政党认为高率的无效投票作为选举机会的标志，因此选择进入竞争的无效投票率高。第三组分析涉及对秘鲁现任政治家、政治候选人和党派战略家的原始访谈数据的收集。该项目的这一部分评估精英和公民之间的互动，通过分析与候选人和现任立法者的半结构化访谈，这些候选人和现任立法者来自具有不同历史无效投票率的国家以下地区：阿雷基帕，卡哈马卡和皮乌拉。为了了解无效投票对政治代表性的影响，该项目将确定政治精英是否以及在多大程度上担心无效投票，以及考虑到这种担忧，精英是否以及如何在竞选过程中和上任后对无效选民做出反应。智力优点：虽然以前的奖学金已经确定了故意无效投票的一些潜在原因，迄今为止，学者们在他们的论点或经验性测试中没有将故意无效投票孤立出来，这些测试在很大程度上是在总体水平上进行的。在学术上，该项目的贡献有两个方面：首先，它提供了一个全面的理论框架，重点是故意无效投票，并在个人层面上使用跨国和单一案例的调查和访谈数据测试相关的理论命题。其次，该项目超越了无效投票的原因，建立和测试精英反应的新理论。衡量政治精英如何评价和回应通常相当大的群体的无效选民，无论是在选举期间和一旦在办公室，提供了一个新的层面上，评估精英的反应，他们的选民，以及更广泛的公众。更广泛的影响：本项目侧重于拉丁美洲地区，在那里的民主衰退已成为近年来越来越常见。故意无效投票的高比率可能表明该地区民主国家的公民普遍不满。长期以来，美国的外交政策一直把促进民主作为一个明确的目标，目的是创造一个更安全的世界。这个项目通过衡量不满在多大程度上激发无效投票，以及产生什么样的政治影响来推进同样的目标。此外，这项研究将与当地研究组织（IEP）合作，使用当地大学生作为研究助理。研究助理将学习特定技能并参与学术研究。将通过会议介绍和纸质出版物向更广泛的学术界传播结果;还将向独立选举方案和秘鲁选举当局传播结果。因此，该项目开发了当地人力资本，并加强了与专注于政治研究和决策的当地机构的跨国联系。

The project investigates the causes of invalid voting, an important issue for democratic development. In recent elections in Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, more than one out of every five voters went to the polls, received a ballot, but did not vote for a congressional candidate. To varying degrees around the world, citizens turn out to vote and then choose not to exercise their most basic democratic right, instead casting blank or incorrectly marked ballots. Yet, despite the frequency of this phenomenon, little is known about who casts these "null" or "invalid" votes, and why. This project assesses potential causes of intentional invalid voting across the Latin American region and, also, examines politician responsiveness to this practice using a mixed methods approach. First, using cross-national survey data of citizens collected by the AmericasBarometer and the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, the project assesses individual-level explanations of invalid voting behavior. Specifically, support is found for the proposed relationships between low political knowledge, dissatisfaction with politics, and invalid voting. A second series of analyses incorporates an original dataset to address questions of elite strategy in response to invalid voting. In particular, this analysis tests the hypothesis that, in strategizing about future party competition, parties view high rates of invalid voting as a sign of electoral opportunity, and therefore choose to enter competition where rates of invalid voting are high. The third set of analyses involves the collection of original interview data with sitting politicians, political candidates, and partisan strategists in Peru. This part of the project assesses the interaction between elites and citizens, through the analysis of semi-structured interviews with candidates and sitting legislators from subnational regions with varied historical rates of invalid voting: Arequipa, Cajamarca, and Piura. To understand the implications of invalid voting for political representation, the project will determine whether and to what extent political elites are concerned about invalid voting, and, given this concern, whether and how elites respond to invalid voters both on the campaign trail and once in office.Intellectual Merit: While previous scholarship has identified some potential causes of intentional invalid voting, scholars to date have not isolated intentional null voting in their arguments or in their empirical tests, which have been conducted in large part at the aggregate level. Academically, this project's contribution is twofold: First, it offers a comprehensive theoretical framework focused on intentional invalid voting, and tests the related theoretical propositions at the individual level using cross-national and single-case survey and interview data. Second, the project extends beyond the causes of invalid voting to build and test a new theory of elite response. Measuring how political elites evaluate and respond to often-sizeable groups of null voters, both during the electoral period and once in office, provides a new dimension on which to assess elites' responsiveness to their constituents, and to the broader public.Broader Impacts: This project focuses on the Latin American region, where democratic recessions have become increasingly common in recent years. High rates of intentional invalid voting could suggest widespread citizen discontent in the democracies of this region. U.S. foreign policy has long made democracy-promotion an explicit goal, with the objective of creating a more secure world. This project advances the same goals by gauging the extent to which dissatisfaction motivates invalid voting, and to what political effect. Additionally, this study will take place in affiliation with a local research organization (IEP), using local university students as research assistants. Research assistants will learn specific skills and participate in academic research. Results will be disseminated to the broader academic community through conference presentations and paper publications; results will also be disseminated to the IEP and to Peru's electoral authorities. This project thus develops local human capital, and strengthens cross-national ties with local institutions focused on political research and policy-making.