Collaborative Research: A Memory based account of cue generation and predictive inference

决策研究越来越多地集中在使用启发式或捷径来描述判断和决策，例如最近关于理性和快速节俭启发式的工作。快速节俭启发式研究的中心目的是描述人们在各种决策任务中使用的各种策略，目的是了解任务结构与策略使用之间的相互作用。与此同时，在判断和决策方面的其他工作已经开始探索基本水平的认知过程（如注意力和记忆）与决策中涉及的高级过程之间的相互关系。例如，最近的研究表明，基于长期记忆和工作记忆的理论模型对于理解各种现实世界领域的判断和决策非常重要，比如医学诊断和智力分析。本研究的总体目标是将快速节俭启发式方法与基于基本记忆理论的判断模型相结合。研究人员的目标是从经验和理论两方面来解决基本的记忆过程，如长期记忆和工作记忆，是如何使快速和节俭的启发式的使用成为可能，又如何限制它们的使用的。由此产生的理论和实证研究将在判断和决策领域广泛推进基础理论。在过去的几十年里，关于快速和节俭启发式的研究一直是判断和决策领域最具影响力和被广泛引用的工作之一。然而，尽管对快速和节俭启发式的研究激增，但该框架的各个方面仍然有些不明确。特别是，虽然该框架广泛依赖于记忆领域的结构，但相对较少的理论和实证工作追求启发式功能的这一方面。然而，这是大多数现实世界判断和选择任务的重要组成部分，因为决策过程的输入通常依赖于记忆的输出。提出的工作旨在通过系统地研究记忆在基于线索的推理任务中的作用来解决文献中的这一空白，在这些任务中，假设启发式方法（如Take-the-best）起作用。除了该项目对实证文献的贡献之外，这项工作将通过将快速和节俭的启发式与假设生成和判断的记忆过程模型相结合，在决策的理论模型上开辟新的领域。提出的实验将提供一个详细的分析基础的记忆过程，既启用和约束基于记忆的推理。从这项研究中获得的知识有可能影响风险沟通和医学等应用环境中的决策制定，在这些环境中，启发式规则被实施为决策辅助工具。

Research in decision-making has increasingly focused on the use of heuristics, or short cuts, to describe judgment and decision-making, such as recent work on rationality and fast-and-frugal heuristics. The central purpose of research on fast-and-frugal heuristics is to characterize the various strategies that people employ across a variety of decision tasks, with the goal of understanding the interplay between task structure and strategy use. At the same time, other work in judgment and decision-making has begun exploring the interrelationship between basic-level cognitive processes such as attention and memory and higher-level processes involved in decision-making. For example, recent work illustrates that theoretical models based on long-term memory and working-memory are important for understanding judgment and decision making in a variety of real-world domains, such as medical diagnosis and intelligence analysis. The overarching goal of the present research is to integrate the fast-and-frugal heuristics approach with a judgment model based on basic memory theory. The researchers' goal is to address, both empirically and theoretically, how basic memory processes such as long-term memory and working memory both enable and constrain the use of fast-and-frugal heuristics. The resulting theoretical and empirical research will advance fundamental theory broadly in the area of judgment and decision making.Research on fast-and-frugal heuristics has been amongst the most influential and widely cited work within the area of judgment and decision-making over the past few decades. However, despite the proliferation of research on fast-and-frugal heuristics, aspects of the framework remain somewhat ill-defined. In particular, while the framework relies extensively on constructs from the area of memory, relatively little theoretical and empirical work has pursued this aspect of heuristic functioning. Yet, this is an important component of most real-world judgment and choice tasks, as the input to the decision process often relies upon the output of memory. The proposed work aims to address this gap in the literature by systematically investigating the role of memory in cue-based inference tasks where heuristics such as Take-the-best are assumed to operate. In addition to the project's contribution to the empirical literature, this work will break new ground on theoretical models of decision-making by merging fast-and-frugal heuristics with a memory-processes model of hypothesis generation and judgment. The proposed experiments will provide a detailed analysis of the underlying memory processes that both enable and constrain memory-based inference. The knowledge gained from this research has the potential to impact decision making in applied contexts such as risk communication and medicine, where heuristic rules are implemented as decision aids.