CAREER: Economic Crises and Amplification Mechanisms

该奖项为宏观经济学研究提供资金。总体目标是了解放大机制在经济危机中的作用。长期以来，经济学家们一直认为，经济波动(或更严重的危机)可能是影响经济体系的“冲击”(意外事件)的结果。然而，在最近的2009年金融危机和随后的大衰退中，相对于对经济的最终影响，引发的冲击似乎很小。许多经济学家一直关注这样一种观点，即经济中包含的放大机制不仅能传递冲击，还能放大冲击。PI想要调查这种类型的可能机制。他还将开发在线迷你课程，教育本科生和高中生有关金融危机的知识。这一研究推动了经济科学对金融危机影响的研究进步。它还将通过为政策制定者提供新的思路和工具来促进国家繁荣。PI将首先考虑“流动性陷阱”作为宏观经济放大机制的作用。这包括分析流动性之旅对事前宏观审慎监管的影响，以及调查住房过度投资是最近美国流动性陷阱的潜在促成因素。第二个项目考虑杠杆率的顺周期性是否起到第二种放大机制的作用。这部分研究将包括实证研究和新经济理论的发展，这些研究将使用外汇市场独特的数据集来检验不确定性和杠杆率之间的预测关系。第三个目标是考虑哪些因素阻碍了保险业将顺周期杠杆排除在金融市场之外。为了实现这一目标，PI将开发导致保险不足的新摩擦模型。

The award funds research in macroeconomics. The overall goal is to understand the role of amplification mechanisms in economic crises. Economists have long thought that economic fluctuations (or more severely, crises) may be the result of 'shocks' (unanticipated events) that affect the economic system. However, in the recent case of the Financial Crisis of 2009 followed by the Great Recession, the initiating shocks seemed small relative to the eventual effect on the economy. Many economists have focused on the idea that the economy contains amplification mechanisms that not only transmit but also magnify shocks. The PI wants to investigate possible mechanisms of this type. He will also develop online mini-courses to educate undergraduates and high school students about the financial crisis. The research promotes the progress of economic science on the effects of financial crises. It will also advance the national prosperity by giving policy makers new ideas and tools in the event of future crises.The PI will first consider the role of the 'liquidity trap' as a macroeconomic amplification mechanism. This includes analyzing the implication of the liquidity trip for ex-ante macroprudential regulation and investigating overinvestment in housing as a potential contributing factor the recent U.S. liquidity trap. The second project considers whether the procyclicality of leverage ratios work as a second amplification mechanism. This part of the research will include both empirical research that will test the predicted relationship between uncertainty and leverage ratios using a unique data set from the foreign exchange market and the development of new economic theory. The third goal is to consider what factors keep insurance from working to keep procyclical leverage out of financial markets. For this goal, the PI will develop new models of frictions that contribute to underinsurance.