Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Grant: Mechanisms For Long Term Maintenance Of Social Stability

这个项目将研究社会稳定的机制，以及一些社会制度抵制变革的原因。社会稳定，或社会制度的持久性，是人类社会的一个基本特征，没有这个特征，人类社会就不可能实现。了解抵制变化和维持社会稳定的环境和进程，对于预测和管理现代世界变化的强度和速度的影响至关重要。以前的学术研究表明，社会稳定不是社会制度的固有属性，不能简单地定义为没有变化，而必须加以解释。随着时间的推移，社会稳定是通过在选择建立关系的个人之间建立累积的社会依赖来实现的。这些依赖的特殊形式导致不同程度的社会凝聚力，类似于“社会粘合剂”，起到促进或阻碍社会稳定的作用。由于社会稳定的嵌入是一个随时间推移的累积过程，考古学具有独特的地位，它具有既定的工具库和必要的长期视角，以解决社会稳定的问题，建立社会抵制变化的背景，无论是好的还是坏的，并最终理解社会变革如何、为什么以及何时发生或没有发生。这项研究将由温迪·塞吉尔斯基博士在C.迈克尔·巴顿博士的指导下进行，作为她博士论文研究的一部分，它将通过结合定量建模和比较考古记录来考察社会复杂性的变化或缺乏，其中社会系统由聚落之间的关系网络来代表。以前的社会学研究表明，社会凝聚力存在多种路径，这些路径的特定演变可能是一个社会长期抵制变革的原因。因此，认识到支配这些路径的机制对于理解社会复杂性的演变是重要的。为了实现这一目标，该项目使用了正式的、抽象的建模技术，称为指数随机图模型，来自网络科学，研究关系数据。这些方法超越了数据的静态快照，转向调查累积的、自下而上的稳定和变化驱动因素的作用，以及它们与经验记录的关系。这项研究将在西班牙东部地中海沿岸和巴伦西亚青铜时代的物质文化上进行，此前的研究似乎表明，700年来该地区的社会变化很小。以往的学术研究已经证明了本研究中使用的网络理论在复杂的社会系统中的健壮性；因此，所提出的方法可以跨文化和跨学科地应用。这项研究还将加强美国与国际机构之间的合作，并为这些创新技术的技术培训提供新的机会。

This project will examine mechanisms of social stability and the reasons why some social systems resist change. Social stability, or the persistence of social systems, is a fundamental feature without which human society is not possible. Understanding contexts and processes that resist change and that maintain social stability is crucial to predicting and managing the effects of the intensity and pace of change of the modern world. Previous scholarship has shown that social stability is not an inherent property of a social system and cannot be defined simply as the absence of change but must be explained. Social stability is embedded over time through the cumulative social dependencies created between individuals who choose to form a relationship. The peculiar formations of these dependencies result in different levels of social cohesion, akin to "social glue", that act to promote or thwart social stability. Since the embedding of social stability is a cumulative process that plays out through time, archaeology is uniquely positioned with an established corpus of tools and the long-term perspective necessary to problematize social stability, to establish contexts in which societies resist change, good or bad, and ultimately to understand how, why, and when social transformation does or does not take place.The research will be conducted by Wendy Cegielski, under the direction of Dr. C. Michael Barton, as part of her doctoral dissertation research It will examine change or lack thereof in social complexity by combining quantitative modeling and the comparative archaeological record where the social system is represented by networks of relations between settlements. From prior sociological research, it has been demonstrated that multiple paths to social cohesion exist and the particular evolution of these paths may be responsible for a society's long-term resistance to change. Subsequently, recognizing the mechanisms governing these paths is important to understanding the evolution of social complexity. In order to accomplish this goal, this project uses formal, abstract modeling techniques called Exponential Random Graph Models from Network Science, the study of relational data. These methods move beyond static snapshots of data toward the investigation of the role of cumulative, bottom-up drivers of stability and change, and their relation to empirical record. The research will be conducted in eastern Spain along the Mediterranean and on the material culture of the Valencian Bronze Age, where prior research appears to indicate little, regional social change for 700 years. Previous scholarship has demonstrated the robusticity across complex social systems of the network theory used in this research; thus the methods proposed can be applied cross-culturally and across disciplines. This research also will increase collaboration between US and international institutions and provide new opportunities for technical training in these innovative techniques.