Potential influence of global climate change on ungulates, predators and tourists in African national parks

尽管全球气候变化对个别物种的潜在影响已经研究得相当透彻，但对营养相互作用、生态系统功能和生态系统服务的潜在影响却知之甚少。非洲大草原提供了一个有趣的研究系统，因为它们栖息着独特的密度和物种丰富的有蹄类动物和大型哺乳动物捕食者。它们还在野生动物旅游方面提供宝贵的生态系统服务，这是许多非洲国家的主要收入。气候因素、植被、有蹄类动物、大型哺乳动物捕食者和游客数量错综复杂地联系在一起。其中一些联系已经得到了很好的研究，特别是在区域空间尺度上。然而，所有组成部分之间的联系，特别是包括游客人数在内的联系，还没有得到定量测试。我们计划通过使用通径分析分析多个非洲国家公园(n≥62)的人口普查数据和游客统计数据，分析气候因素、植被、有蹄类动物、大型哺乳动物捕食者和游客数量之间的定量关系。我们还将通过对哺乳动物和游客进行自己的统计，在一个降雨量梯度较大的国家公园内，在区域空间尺度上分析同样的关系。我们将使用这些不同组成部分之间的定量关系和空间换时间的方法来评估全球气候变化对这一系统的潜在影响。

Whereas the potential impact of global climate change on individual species has been studied rather thoroughly, the potential effects on trophic interactions, ecosystem functions and ecosystem services are poorly understood. African savannahs provide an interesting study system as they harbour a unique density and species richness of ungulates and large mammalian predators. They also provide valuable ecosystem services in terms of wildlife tourism, a major income for many African countries. Climatic factors, vegetation, ungulates, large mammalian predators and tourist numbers are intricately linked. Some of these links have been well studied, especially at regional spatial scales. However, links among all components, especially including tourist numbers have not been tested quantitatively. We plan to analyse the quantitative relationships between climatic factors, vegetation, ungulates, large mammalian predators, and tourist numbers by analysing census data and visitor statistics across multiple African national parks (n≥62) using path analyses. We will also analyse the same relationships at a regional spatial scale within one national park with a large rainfall gradient by conducting own counts on mammals and tourists. We will use the quantitative relationships among these different components and a space-for-time approach to assess the potential effects of global climate change on this system.