Workshop: Modeling of Infectious Diseases with a Focus on Ebola; March 6-7, 2016; Dakar, Senegal

该奖项将资助在塞内加尔达喀尔举行的下一个爱因斯坦论坛（NEF）为期两天的卫星研讨会。该研讨会将于2016年3月6日至7日举行，重点是美国-非洲传染病建模合作研究，为公共卫生准备提供信息。最近在西非爆发的埃博拉疫情提醒人们，世界对严重的疾病流行或任何类似的全球持续公共紧急情况准备不足。在一个联系日益紧密的世界中，未来全球严重传染病爆发的风险比以往任何时候都大。研讨会将探讨如何利用数学模型来了解和预测疾病传播动态，并评估不同干预措施和不断变化的实地条件对流行病学结果的影响。讲习班将集中讨论对最近爆发的埃博拉病毒的反应，同时从各国对艾滋病毒/艾滋病和其他流行病的反应中获得见解。为了加强地方参与，还计划在达喀尔的Checelanta Diop大学举办一次小型研讨会。虽然建模者以前分析过正在发生的流行病，如2003年SARS和2009年猪流感流行病，但他们对最近埃博拉疫情的反应是前所未有的，因为在线提供了来自世卫组织和受影响最严重国家的卫生部的流行病学数据。从这次疫情中吸取的经验教训将是根本的，以改善流行病学建模在新出现和重新出现的传染病爆发期间的应用，使公众认识到流行病学建模的重要性，并改善公共卫生当局和建模者之间的互动，以最终使用数学/计算模型为预防战略提供信息，以减轻未来的流行病。卫星研讨会和小型研讨会将促进美国和非洲的建模者和政策制定者之间的合作。将来自非洲和美国的科学家聚集在一起，应该使他们更好地准备在疾病威胁给我们的社会带来的相互交织的问题上进行合作。这不仅使美国研究人员能够更好地了解非洲疾病传播途径和政府政策的影响，还将使他们了解非洲的建模工作，并提供数据和解释的联系。这种合作将为美国研究人员了解非洲特有的问题打开大门，例如如何最好地优化有限的资源，以遏制疾病在特定非洲人群中的传播。

This award will fund a two-day satellite workshop to the Next Einstein Forum (NEF) in Dakar, Senegal. The workshop will be held on March 6-7, 2016, and will focus on US-African collaborative research on infectious disease modeling for informing public health preparedness. The recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa was a reminder that the world is ill-prepared for a severe disease epidemic or any similar global sustained public emergency. The risk of future global severe infectious disease outbreaks in an increasingly connected world is greater than ever. The workshop will explore how mathematical models can be used to understand and forecast disease transmission dynamics and to evaluate the effect of different interventions and changing on-the-ground conditions on epidemiological outcomes. The workshop will concentrate on the responses to the recent Ebola outbreak, while gaining insight from responses to HIV/AIDS and other epidemics within individual countries. To enhance local engagement, a mini-symposium at the University Cheikh anta Diop of Dakar is also planned. Though modelers have analyzed ongoing epidemics before, such as the 2003 SARS and 2009 Swine Flu epidemics, their response to the recent Ebola outbreak enabled by online availability of epidemiological data, from WHO and health ministries of the most affected countries, was unprecedented in magnitude. Lessons learned from this outbreak will be fundamental for improving the application for epidemiological modeling during outbreak of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, engaging public awareness on the importance of epidemiological modeling, and improving interaction between public health authorities and modelers to the end of using mathematical/computational models to inform preparedness strategies to mitigate future epidemics. The satellite workshop and mini-symposium will catalyze collaborations among modelers and policy makers in the US and Africa. Bringing together scientists from Africa and the US should lead them to be better prepared to collaborate on the intertwined problems posed for our societies by the threats of disease. Not only will this enable US researchers to gain better understanding of routes of disease transmission and effects of government policies in Africa, it will also expose them to the modeling efforts in Africa and provide contacts for data and interpretation. Such collaboration will open doors for US researchers to learn of problems that are uniquely African, such as how best to optimize limited resources to contain the spread of a disease in specific African populations.