INFEWS/T1: Monitoring and managing food, energy, and water systems under stress: California

粮食、能源和水系统高度相互依赖，并日益受到资源需求、严格的环境政策和严重和持续干旱的压力。该项目建立在对加州近期干旱的了解基础上，提供了一个学习如何监测和共同管理粮食、能源和水系统的机会。这将通过旨在评估现在和将来这些系统之间的权衡的详细建模来完成。该模型可用于评估气候变率、水资源政策、经济和人口增长、技术进步和贸易的影响。为了确保这一重要系统的每个组成部分的风险降到最低，研究处于压力下的系统需要科学的整合。这项研究将加强对农业、能源、水文和气候变率跨学科耦合的理解。该项目将为美国的科学领导力做出贡献，并将培养从中学和代表性不足的群体招募的博士后学者、研究生、本科生和高中暑期实习生。该项目与加利福尼亚州的主要利益相关者有密切的联系。该项目将模拟加州的食物、能源和水系统（FEWS）关系，其中这些组成部分之间的重要相互作用可以使用历史数据进行全面评估。通过在空间、时间和机械细节的预期水平上解决这个少数系统的系统，该项目将推进少数系统的知识，以及它们如何应对外部和内部压力。这些知识可以用来为加州和其他地方未来的资源管理决策提供信息。建模工作将分为三个阶段：(1)对供水变化的经济和行为反应的估计；(2)对加州现有食物、能源和水系统之间的影响和依赖关系的强度进行定量建模和评估；(3)对加州未来食物、能源和水系统之间的影响和依赖关系进行稳健的基于场景的模型评估。使用历史观察和反应将能够直接比较模拟和测量的反应，从而对近年来管理的少数系统相互依存关系提供强有力的检验。

Food, energy and water systems are highly interdependent and increasingly stressed by resource demands, strict environmental policies, and severe and persistent drought. This project builds on knowledge of the recent drought in California and presents an opportunity to learn how to monitor and jointly manage food, energy, water systems together. This will be accomplished through detailed modeling aimed at evaluating trade-offs among these systems both now and in the future. The model can be used to assess the impacts of climate variability, water policies, economic and population growth, and technological progress and trade. This integration of sciences is necessary to study systems under stress in order to ensure that risk in each component of this vital system is minimized. This research will strengthen the understanding of the interdisciplinary coupling of agriculture, energy, hydrology, and climate variability. The project will contribute to US scientific leadership and will train postdoctoral scholars, graduate students, undergraduate students, and high school summer interns recruited from secondary schools and underrepresented groups. The project has strong contact with key stakeholders in the state of California. This project will model the food, energy water system (FEWS) nexus for California where the important interactions among these components can be comprehensively assessed using historical data. By addressing this FEW system of systems at the intended level of spatial, temporal and mechanistic detail, the project will advance knowledge of FEW systems and how they respond to external and internal stress. This knowledge can then be used to inform future decisions regarding resource management in California and by extension elsewhere. The modeling effort will be structured in three phases: (1) estimation of economic and behavioral responses to changing water supply, (2) quantitative modelling and assessment of the strength of impacts and dependencies among the existing food, energy, and water systems in California, and (3) robust scenario-based model assessment of impacts and dependencies among the future food, energy, and water systems in California. The use of historical observations and responses is will enable a direct comparison of modelled and measured responses and thus provide a strong test of FEW systems interdependence as they have been managed in recent years.