CAREER: Understanding and Designing Structures for Hurricane Wind and Surge Hazards under Changing Climate Conditions

飓风和风暴潮对美国许多沿海地区构成重大威胁（如1992年的安德鲁飓风、2005年的卡特里娜飓风和2012年的桑迪飓风）。由于海平面和气候条件的变化，这些飓风的危害可能会加剧。建筑物和其他民用基础设施的使用寿命通常为50年或更长，在此期间，它们可能会受到海平面变化和气候条件的影响。然而，目前评估结构性能的模型往往忽略了这些影响，因为它们是基于飓风危害和荷载的气候不变模型。这项教师早期职业发展（Career）计划的研究目标是调查飓风和风暴潮的危害在不断变化的气候条件下如何变化，并制定一个新的框架来理解这种变化将如何影响结构性能。将对波士顿、纽约、迈阿密、坦帕和加尔维斯顿等沿海特大城市进行案例研究，并将支持提高美国沿海的弹性。该项目将通过培训、吸引和激励不同水平和背景的学生，培养下一代劳动力，减轻飓风对建筑的影响。这项研究将建立一个新的飓风气候学模型，该模型可以产生大量具有物理相关特征（成因、路径、强度和大小）的合成风暴，这些风暴是由综合观测或预测的气候条件变化驱动的。飓风气候学模型将与先进的灾害模型相结合，以研究飓风和风暴潮（包括海平面上升）灾害在未来如何单独或共同变化。将生成各种预估气候条件下飓风和风暴潮联合事件的大型综合数据库，用于评估结构在面对随气候条件变化而变化的非平稳风和风暴潮危害时的寿命性能和目标失效概率。由这项研究产生的风和浪涌数据集和分析工具将在nsf支持的NHERI DesignSafe-CI.org门户网站上提供。除了积极吸引本科生和研究生参与研究外，本项目还将把研究整合到普林斯顿大学的本科生风险分析课程和研究生风工程课程中，并为高中生建立海岸弹性暑期实习。

Hurricane winds and storm surge present major hazards to many coastal areas in the United States (e.g., Hurricanes Andrew of 1992, Katrina of 2005, and Sandy of 2012). These hurricane hazards will likely intensify due to changing sea levels and climate conditions. Buildings and other civil infrastructure often have a service life of 50 years or longer, during which period they may be exposed to the effects of changing sea levels and climate conditions. However, current models for assessing structural performance often neglect these effects, as they are based on climate-invariant modeling of hurricane hazards and loads. The research goals of this Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) Program grant are to investigate how hurricane wind and storm surge hazards can vary under changing climate conditions and to formulate a new framework to understand how this variation will impact structural performance. Case studies will be carried out for coastal megacities such as Boston, New York City, Miami, Tampa, and Galveston and will support increased coastal resiliency in the United States. The project will contribute to a next-generation workforce for mitigating the impact of hurricanes on structures by training, engaging, and motivating students of all levels and backgrounds. This research will establish a new hurricane climatology model that can generate large numbers of synthetic storms with physically correlated characteristics (genesis, track, intensity, and size) driven by comprehensive observed or projected changing climate conditions. The hurricane climatology model will be coupled with advanced hazard modeling to investigate how hurricane wind and storm surge (including sea-level rise) hazards will vary individually and jointly in the future. A large synthetic database of joint hurricane wind and storm surge events under various projected climates will be generated for assessing lifetime structural performance and target probability of failure in the face of nonstationary wind and storm surge hazards varying with changing climate conditions. Wind and surge datasets and analytical tools generated by this research will be made available on the NSF-supported NHERI DesignSafe-CI.org web portal. In addition to actively engaging undergraduate and graduate students in the research, this project will integrate the research into an undergraduate risk analysis course and a graduate wind engineering course at Princeton University, and also establish a summer internship on coastal resilience for high school students.