The Impact of Intangible Investments on the Macroeconomy

该奖项资助宏观经济学研究，旨在更好地了解2008年经济活动大幅下降背后的主要驱动力？2009年，经济缓慢复苏。该项目旨在阐明影响这一时期关键宏观数据分析的计量问题。如果企业大量投资于无形投资，那么测量的GDP的下降将理解总产出的实际下降，因为测量的GDP不包括所有无形投资。这可能导致经济衰退期间劳动生产率的上升，正如2009年所观察到的那样。该项目将制定一个多部门框架，明确模拟无形投资和工业投入-产出联系，并将使用分类数据。我们的目标是确定是否有效率的资源配置和波动的影响，以全要素生产率的商业周期模型可以解释2008年的经济经验？2009.研究结果将帮助我们理解金融市场的低效率中断是否意味着政府应该以新的方式监管金融市场。该项目开发了多部门框架，并使用最大似然技术估计了关键模型参数。在这里，使用分类数据非常有用，因为各行业的研发、商标和其他无形资产支出存在巨大差异，包括部门联系可能会对生产率冲击的传播产生影响。该模型还将扩展到考虑到财务因素。量化无形资产在商业周期活动中的作用将在几个方面推动经济科学的发展。目前的知识是有限的，因为以前的工作集中在汇总数据或特定的事件。以前的工作是在美国国民账户体系引入新的无形投资计量方法的重大修订之前进行的。

This award funds research in macroeconomics that seeks to better understand the main driving forces behind the large decline in economic activity between 2008 ? 2009 and the subsequent slow recovery. The project seeks to shed light on a measurement issue that affects the analysis of key macro data from this period. If firms invest heavily in intangible investments, a drop in measured GDP will understand the actual decline in total output because measured GDP does not include all intangible investments. This could result in a rise in labor productivity during a recession, as observed in 2009. The project will develop a multisector framework that explicitly models intangible investments and industry input-output linkages and will use disaggregated data. The goal is to determine whether models of the business cycle that feature efficient resource allocation and fluctuations driven by shocks to total factor productivities can explain the economic experience of 2008 ? 2009. The results will help us understand whether or not inefficient disruptions in financial markets mean governments should regulate financial markets in new ways.The project develops the multisector framework and estimates key model parameters with maximum likelihood techniques. Working with disaggregated data is very useful here, because there are vast differences in spending on R&D, trademarks, and other intangibles across industries, and including sectoral linkages will likely have an impact on the propagation of productivity shocks. The model will also be extended to allow for financial factors. Quantifying the role of intangible assets for business cycle activity will advance economic science in several ways. The current state of knowledge is limited because previous work has focused on aggregate data or a specific episode. The previous work was conducted prior to major revisions that introduced new measurements of intangible investments into the U.S. system of national accounts.