CNH-L: Dynamic Impacts of Environmental Change and Biomass Harvesting on Woodland Ecosystems and Traditional Livelihoods

这一跨学科研究项目将研究环境变化和伐木对林地生态系统的综合影响，以确定在未来促进能够持续使用木材燃料的健康森林的条件。虽然越来越多的证据表明森林受到干旱、极端温度和过度采伐的威胁，但科学家目前很难预测未来的森林状况，这限制了预测地球上三分之一依赖木材作为主要燃料来源的人的能源安全的能力。为了克服这些限制，该项目将收集有关森林健康、人类采伐做法以及气候和其他环境条件的数据。研究人员将使用这些数据来研究人与当地环境之间的动态，并开发一个模型，可以预测这一自然-人类耦合系统中未来的变化。项目结果将为评估小规模社会生态系统对环境转变的敏感性提供更多概括性的见解。该项目将为土地管理决策提供信息，目的是在多变的环境条件下改善林地健康和人类生计的可持续性。该项目还将为研究生和本科生提供跨学科研究的教育和培训机会。森林燃料约占全球一次能源预算的9%，但关于森林-薪材-气候耦合关系的数据有限，特别是森林在不断变化的环境中为生存人口提供薪柴的可持续性。该项目将由人类学家、生物学家、地理学家、大气科学家和工程师组成的跨学科小组进行，他们将收集有关各种气候条件和土地管理制度下林地生物量和采伐需求的经验数据。来自定量人种学、田间生态学、遥感和气候学的数据将用于创建和验证一个动态模型，该模型能够在气候变化和收获情景下预测该系统的未来条件。虽然该项目将重点放在犹他州南部的皮尼翁-杜松林地，那里的纳瓦霍人和犹特人依赖木柴燃料，但结果将提供一个能够预测不同环境情景下不同耦合自然-人类系统的总体框架。该项目得到了美国自然与人类耦合系统动力学(CNH)计划的支持。

This interdisciplinary research project will examine the combined effects of environmental variation and firewood harvesting on woodland ecosystems to determine the conditions that promote healthy forests capable of sustaining wood fuel use into the future. While growing evidence suggests that forests are threatened by droughts, extreme temperatures, and overharvesting, scientists currently have difficulty predicting future forest conditions, and that restricts capabilities to anticipate the energy security of one-third of the Earth's people who rely on wood as a primary fuel source. To overcome these limitations, this project will gather data about forest health, human harvesting practices, and climate and other environmental conditions. The investigators will use these data to examine the dynamics between people and their local environment and to develop a model that can forecast future variation in this coupled natural-human system. Project findings will provide more generalizable insights for assessing the sensitivity of small-scale socioecological systems to environmental transitions. This project will inform land management decisions aimed at improving the sustainability of woodland health and human livelihoods under variable environmental conditions. The project also will provide education and training opportunities in the conduct of interdisciplinary research for graduate and undergraduate students.Forest fuels comprise about nine percent of the global primary energy budget, but data are limited regarding the coupled forest-fuelwood-climate nexus, particularly the sustainability of forests to provide firewood for subsistence populations in a changing environment. This project will be conducted by an interdisciplinary team of anthropologists, biologists, geographers, atmospheric scientists, and engineers who will gather empirical data about woodland biomass and harvesting demand across a variety of climatic conditions and land-management regimes. Data generated from quantitative ethnography, field ecology, remote sensing, and climatology will be used to create and validate a dynamic model capable of predicting future conditions of this system under altered climate and harvesting scenarios. While this project will focus on the piñon-juniper woodlands of southern Utah where Navajo and Ute people rely on wood fuel, results will provide a general framework capable of predicting diverse coupled natural-human systems under varied environmental scenarios. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.