Towards a Resilient Electric Power Grid: An Investment Prioritization Decision Framework Integrating Risks of Severe Weather-Induced Outages

美国电力系统因恶劣天气导致的停电，每年造成数十亿美元的毁灭性损失，影响数亿人。然而，目前输配电网络的风险和可靠性指标和标准低估了极端事件对电力服务的影响，从而低估了更广泛的经济和社会成本。为了解决这一差距，本研究打算开发新的风险评估方法，以处理在与天气相关的极端事件不确定的情况下，将停电与社会成本联系起来的复杂性。预计这项工作将为更有效地管理电力系统的风险和整体安全的监管决策过程提供信息，并为在其他公用事业部门实现类似创新提供框架。这项工作预计将产生：(1)基于算法的新型概率风险分析模型，用于估计恶劣天气事件下重大停电的风险；(2)建立先进的经济模型，估算因此类停电而导致的相互依赖的基础设施失效所造成的复合经济损失；(3)优化技术，以确定解决深度不确定性的最佳策略。研究成果将通过同行评审的期刊出版物传播，研究生和本科生将继续参与课程和研究。

Severe weather-induced outages in the US electric power system result in devastating, multi-billion dollar damages affecting hundreds of millions of people each year. However, current risk and reliability metrics and standards for both electricity transmission and distribution networks undervalue the impact of extreme events on electric power service, and thus on broader economic and societal costs. In the light of addressing this gap, this research intends to develop new risk assessment methods to deal with the complexities associated with linking outage to societal costs under the uncertainty of weather-related extreme events. This work is expected to inform regulatory decision-making processes for more effectively managing risks and overall security of the electric power system, and to provide a framework for achieving similar innovations in other utility sectors.This work is expected to result in (1) novel algorithm-based probabilistic risk analysis models for estimating risk of major power outages under severe weather events; (2) advanced economic models to estimate the compounding economic losses due to failure of interdependent infrastructure due to such power outages; and (3) optimization techniques to determine best strategies for addressing deep uncertainties. The research outcomes will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journal publications, with continued engagement of graduate and undergraduate students through coursework and research.