Dynamic Risk Perception and Action in Response to Forest Insect Disturbance in North-Central Colorado

这项研究建立在2006-2007年在科罗拉多州中北部进行的一项研究的基础上，该地区的森林被一种大规模的山松甲虫（MPB）侵扰所破坏，影响了超过340万英亩的土地。虽然众所周知，环境条件会随着时间的推移而变化，但关于风险认知和风险缓解行动如何随着环境条件的变化而演变的研究还很缺乏。依赖自然资源的社区对环境变化特别敏感，特别是当这种变化增加了灾害脆弱性并对生计和娱乐产生不利影响时。在分析MPB对森林干扰的风险感知和反应时，原始研究发现不同社区之间存在显著差异，感知干扰和社区互动水平较高的居民更有可能参与当地应对MPB爆发的行动。当前的研究建立在以前的工作基础上，通过重新访问原始的研究社区，并关注当地反应的时间维度。更具体地说，它考察了森林风险认知与当地人类行为的各个方面之间的关系。自然互动，包括一个？S的场所感、环境价值、对干扰强度的感知、对相关突发事件的经验以及对负责管理森林资源的关键行为者的满意度。因此，本研究探讨了灾害经验、风险感知和相关行动之间的动态关系，这些关系可能会影响依赖自然资源的社区未来的脆弱性和适应性。环境风险感知和风险相关行为是减少灾害风险和环境/气候变化脆弱性研究中的一个重要课题。尽管风险事件具有内在的动态性，但在现有的风险分析中，对风险感知的时间维度研究不足。基于自然资源的社区为分析不断变化的社会生态系统中的动态风险感知和决策提供了关键背景。为响应风险研究中更多纵向研究的需要，本研究考察了科罗拉多州中北部山区松甲虫（MPB）对森林干扰的动态风险感知和行动。基于2006-2007年收集的关于地方应对MPB暴发的数据的实证研究在9个原始研究社区（布雷肯里奇、狄龙、弗朗斯科、格兰比、克雷姆林、西尔弗索恩、蒸汽船泉、韦尔和瓦尔登）得到复制和扩展。本研究采用二次社会经济和生物物理数据、媒体分析、关键信息访谈和邮件调查相结合的混合方法设计。指导本项目的四个主要研究目标：(1)利用基于经验的方法，概念化动态人-自然关系经验在构建风险感知中的作用；(2)评估当地居民灾害体验、风险感知和甲虫相关活动的时间变化及其空间变异；(3)分析影响森林风险感知变化的关键因素；(4)探索风险认知与应对MPB爆发的行动之间的动态关系。研究结果可有助于提高当地公众对MPB爆发的认识，并有助于社区成员参与科学和森林管理。项目的高潮是一个参与性进程，利用社区论坛阐述长期以来从社区应对森林虫害的经验中吸取的教训。

This study builds upon research conducted in 2006-2007 in north-central Colorado, a region in which the forests have been devastated by a massive mountain pine beetle (MPB) infestation that has affected more than 3.4 million acres. While it is well established the environmental conditions change over time, research that examines how risk perceptions and risk mitigating actions may evolve in relation to changing environmental conditions is lacking. Communities dependent on natural resources are especially sensitive to environmental changes, particularly when such changes increase hazard vulnerability and adversely affect livelihoods and recreation. In analyzing risk perception and response to forest disturbance by MPB, the original study found notable variation across communities, and that residents with higher levels of perceived disturbance and community interaction were more likely to participate in local actions in response to the MPB outbreak. The current study builds on the previous work by revisiting the original study communities and focusing on the temporal dimension of local responses. More specifically, it examines the relationships between forest risk perception and various aspects of local human?nature interactions including one?s sense of place, environmental values, perceptions of disturbance intensity, experience with relevant emergencies, and satisfaction with key actors tasked with managing forest resources. As such, this study explores the dynamic relationships between hazard experience, risk perception, and related actions that may shape future vulnerabilities and adaptations of natural resource-dependent communities.Environmental risk perception and risk-related behavior constitute an important topical area in both disaster risk reduction and vulnerability to environmental/climate change studies. Despite the inherent dynamic nature of risk events, the temporal dimension of risk perception has been understudied in existing risk analysis. Natural resource-based communities provide a key backdrop for analyzing dynamic risk perceptions and decisions in changing social-ecological systems. Responding to the need for more longitudinal studies in risk research, this study examines the dynamic risk perception and action in response to forest disturbance by mountain pine beetles (MPB) in north-central Colorado. Empirical research based on data collected in 2006-2007 on local responses to the MPB outbreak is replicated and expanded for nine original study communities (Breckenridge, Dillon, Frisco, Granby, Kremmling, Silverthorne, Steamboat Springs, Vail, and Walden). The study adopts a mixed methods design combining secondary socioeconomic and biophysical data, media analysis, key informant interviews, and mail surveys. Four main research objectives guide this project: (1) to conceptualize the role of dynamic human-nature relationship experience in framing risk perception over time using an experience-based approach; (2) to assess temporal changes (and their spatial variations) in hazard experience, risk perception, and beetle-related activeness of local residents; (3) to analyze key factors influencing changes in perceived forest risks; and (4) to explore the dynamic relationship between risk perception and action in response to the MPB outbreak. Research findings can contribute to increased local public awareness of the MPB outbreak and community members' engagement with science and forest management. The project culminates with a participatory process using community forums to articulate lessons learned from community experience with forest insect disturbance over time.