Assessing the Influence of Zero-Deforestation Supply-Chain Commitments on the Conservation of Ecosystems

森林砍伐具有多重社会环境影响，包括土地冲突、农村收入不平等加剧、生物多样性丧失和水文变化。私营部门制定的新保护政策正在应用于全球供应链，以通过零毁林承诺应对热带地区毁林的挑战。然而，人们对这些政策的影响或可能促进其有效性的有利条件的了解有限。该项目将提供有关零毁林承诺如何影响土地覆盖变化的复杂全球远程耦合和公私治理相互作用的新知识。这项研究将增强我们对零毁林承诺导致生态系统保护的条件的基本理解。这项研究将直接为公共和私人环境政策以及民间社会为保护热带森林所做的努力提供信息。通过开放的数据共享和存档，该项目将有助于提高食品供应链的透明度。本研究将研究全球多个地区的大豆、油棕和畜牧业，并分析这些地区的社会经济和农业生态变化如何对与零毁林承诺相关的结果产生差异影响。该研究将调查四个核心问题：1)零森林砍伐政策是否适用于最紧迫的森林砍伐地区？2)企业零毁林政策如何与公共政策相互作用，从而影响农业利润并抑制当地毁林动机？3)这些政策中时间表和森林定义的差异如何影响土地覆盖结果？4)渗漏到其他地区的土地覆盖变化在多大程度上抵消了当地森林砍伐的减少？为了回答这些问题，研究人员将收集和综合一个全面的数据集，包括土地覆盖图、供应链承诺、采购行为、贸易流量以及遵守或不遵守供应链承诺的生产商成本。将开发一个模型，以高空间分辨率评估区域土地覆盖结果。该模型的结果将与现有的区域模型和全球贸易模型相结合，以评估区域特定商品承诺对其他商品和生物群落的影响。这项研究的更广泛的影响将有助于建立零森林砍伐承诺可能实现生态系统保护的条件，并为私营和公共部门制定有效的政策组合提供信息。

Deforestation has multiple socioenvironmental impacts including land conflict, increasing rural income inequality, biodiversity loss, and hydrological changes. New conservation policies developed by the private sector are being applied to global supply chains to tackle the challenge of deforestation in the tropics through zero-deforestation commitments. Yet there is limited knowledge about the impact of these policies or the enabling conditions that may promote their effectiveness. This project will provide new knowledge on the complex global telecouplings and public-private governance interactions of how zero-deforestation commitments influence land cover change. The research will enhance our fundamental understanding about the conditions under which zero-deforestation commitments lead to ecosystem conservation. The research will directly inform public and private environmental policy as well as civil society efforts toward tropical forest conservation. Through open data sharing and archiving, this project will contribute to improving transparency in food supply chains.This research will study the soy, oil palm, and cattle industries in multiple regions globally and analyze how the socioeconomic and agro-ecological variation across these regions differentially influence outcomes associated with zero-deforestation commitments. The research will investigate four core questions: 1) Are zero-deforestation policies being applied in the most urgent locations of deforestation? 2) How do corporate zero-deforestation policies interact with public policies to influence agricultural profits and inhibit local incentives to deforest? 3) How do differences in timelines and forest definitions in these policies influence land cover outcomes? and 4) To what degree does leakage of land cover change to other regions offset local reductions in deforestation? To answer these questions the investigators will collect and synthesize a comprehensive dataset of land cover maps, supply chain commitments, sourcing behaviors, trade flows, and producer costs of compliance or noncompliance with supply chain commitments. A model will be developed to assess the regional land cover outcomes at a high spatial resolution. Outcomes from this model with be coupled with existing regional models and a global trade model to evaluate impacts of regional commodity-specific commitments on other commodities and biomes. The broader implications of this research will help establish the conditions under which zero-deforestation commitments are likely to achieve ecosystem conservation, and inform the development of effective policy mixes across the private and public sectors.