PIRE: Climate Research Education in the Americas Using Tree-Ring and Cave Sediment Examples (PIRE-CREATE)

PI: Mathias Vuille（纽约州立大学奥尔巴尼分校）联合PI: Rosanne D'Arrigo（哥伦比亚大学）Dai Aiguo（纽约州立大学奥尔巴尼分校）Catherine Lawson（纽约州立大学奥尔巴尼分校）非技术：美洲未来的气候是不确定的，并且随着各国努力为干旱，洪水或野火做准备，这是一个挑战。在工业革命和人类对环境的重大影响开始之前的一千年里，更好地理解气候是如何自然变化的，这可能会指导未来的准备工作。我们的PIRE汇集了来自美国、巴西和阿根廷五个研究机构的国际专家团队。通过提高我们对北美和南美过去气候变化的认识，我们将把未来的气候预测置于一个更长期的框架内，以便更好地为国际决策者和利益攸关方提供信息。通过将南美洲两个最大的树木年轮和洞穴沉积物（石笋）档案中的数据与新的未发表的记录相结合，PIRE的研究人员将调查过去一千年来两大洲极端事件的本质。我们的研究将扩大我们对过去气候扰动的潜在原因的理解，其中许多都与巨大的社会影响（饥荒、疾病和战争）有关。通过跨学科的研究培训，培养新一代的学生和博士后学者。研究结果将转化为可视化模型和政策相关气候信息工具包，供科学界、政府和民间社会使用。国际合作伙伴来自阿根廷、巴西、玻利维亚和秘鲁。这个奖项是由古气候项目共同资助的。技术方面：缩小北美和南美气候变化预估未来可能结果的范围，需要加强对气候变率自然连续体的科学认识。pierre - create的目标是提高我们对美洲古气候的认识，从古角度确定气候变化的驱动因素。通过结合新的树木年轮年表和洞穴记录，国际气候研究所的研究小组将调查过去一千年里跨越北美和南美的极端气候的特征和原因。具体而言，PIRE将推进以下科学目标：1)记录南美季风对外部强迫的敏感性；2)重建El Niño -南方涛动和年代际太平洋涛动；3)识别过去的极端事件，分析其原因和社会反应；4)将热带南美洲的树木年轮和洞穴记录合并成一个新的混合产品，作为热带南美洲时空气候重建的基础；5)通过从代理中观测到的变率来约束过去模式的性能，从而减少未来预估的不确定性。该模型将产生新的气候重建，检测和分析过去的极端气候（干旱、野火、洪水）及其社会反应，通过协同混合不同的代理来创建新的古产品，并更好地约束基于过去模型数据比较的区域尺度未来预测，这将成为模型评估的理想测试平台。此外，该项目将通过以下方式培养一支具有全球竞争力的、经过跨学科培训的科研队伍：a)让研究生和本科生参与研究活动，包括实地收集数据、分析实验室观察和模型以及传播数据和研究结果；b)通过与PIRE同事的学术合作，访问早期职业奖学金和国际在线课程，加强学生，博士后和教师的文化素养和丰富；c)通过国际教育委员会的国际教育办公室、国际委员会的指导以及研究生研究活动，提高本科生和研究生在合作机构的海外学习一个学期的全球能力；D)通过国际暑期学校和实践培训为本科生提供体验式学习机会；e)通过举办六所面向纽约州立大学本科生（特别是纽约州立大学的12.5万名少数族裔学生和22.5万名女学生）的PIRE学院，扩大STEM的参与。此外，通过将其研究成果转化为新颖易用的可视化工具，以提高对复杂的古气候数据、模式预测和两大洲气候变化影响的理解，PIRE将有助于提高对整个美洲与气候变化相关的未来风险的认识和了解。该计划的合作伙伴还将共同主办两个国际论坛，汇集来自美洲的科学家、政府官员、立法者、部委工作人员和其他主要利益攸关方，以了解该计划的研究成果，传播可视化模型和工具包，并将科学成果转化为北美和南美以及更广泛的国际社会可操作的规划方案和政策考虑。

PI: Mathias Vuille (SUNY Albany)co-PIs: Rosanne D'Arrigo (Columbia University)Aiguo Dai (SUNY Albany)Catherine Lawson (SUNY Albany)Nontechnical:The future climate of the Americas is uncertain and presents a challenge as countries strive to prepare for droughts, floods, or wildfires. Future preparation may be guided by a better understanding of how climate varied naturally over the past millennium - preceding the start of the industrial revolution and significant human impact on the environment. Our PIRE brings together a team of international experts from five research institutions in the United States, Brazil and Argentina. By improving our understanding of past climate variations over North and South America, we will place future climate projections within a longer-term framework to better inform international policymakers and stakeholders. PIRE researchers will investigate the nature of extreme events over the two continents during the last one thousand years by merging data from the two largest tree-ring and cave sediment (stalagmite) archives in South America with new, unpublished records. Our research will enlarge our understanding of the underlying causes of past climate perturbations, many of which were associated with large societal impacts (famine, disease and warfare). We will prepare a new generation of students and postdoctoral scholars through the interdisciplinary research training. Results will be translated into visualization models and toolkits of policy-relevant climate information for the scientific community, government and civil society. The international partners are from Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Peru. This award is co-funded by the Paleoclimate program. Technical:Narrowing the range of possible future outcomes from climate change projections over North and South America demands enhanced scientific understanding of the natural continuum of climate variability. The goal of the PIRE-CREATE is to advance our knowledge of paleoclimate over the Americas to identify drivers of climate change from a paleo-perspective. By combining new tree-ring chronologies and speleothem records, the PIRE's research team will investigate the characteristics and causes of climate extremes spanning North and South America during the last millennium. Specifically, the PIRE will advance the following scientific objectives: 1) document the sensitivity of the South American monsoon to external forcing; 2) create a new reconstruction of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; 3) identify past extreme events and analyze their causes and societal response; 4) merge tree-ring and speleothem records over tropical South America into a new blended product that serves as the basis for a spatiotemporal climate reconstruction over tropical South America; and 5) reduce the uncertainty of future projections by constraining past model performance with observed variability from proxies. This PIRE will produce new climate reconstructions, detect and analyze past climate extremes (droughts, wildfires, floods) and their societal response, create a new paleo-product by synergistically blending different proxies, and better constrain regional-scale future projections based on past model-data comparisons, which will serve as an ideal testbed for model assessment. In addition, this PIRE will prepare a globally competent, interdisciplinary trained, scientific workforce by a) immersing graduate and undergraduate students in research activities involving data collection in the field, analysis of lab observations and models, and dissemination of data and findings; b) strengthening cultural literacy and the enrichment of students, postdocs and faculty through scholarly collaboration with PIRE colleagues, visiting early-career fellowships, and international online courses; c) enhancing the global competence of undergraduate and graduate students with a semester abroad at partner institutions facilitated through PIRE Offices of International Education, mentorship through an international committee, and graduate research activities; d) providing experiential learning opportunities for undergraduate students through international summer schools and hands-on training; and e) broadening participation in STEM by hosting six PIRE Academies aimed at undergraduate students across SUNY - particularly, SUNY's 125,000 minority and 225,000 female students. Further, the PIRE will serve to enhance awareness and knowledge of the future risks associated with climate change across the Americas by translating its research findings into novel, easy-to-use visualization tools to increase comprehension of complex paleoclimate data, model projections, and impacts of climate change over the two continents. The PIRE's partners will also co-host two International Forums bringing together scientists, government officials, legislators, ministry staff and other key stakeholders from the Americas to learn about the PIRE's research findings, to disseminate visualization models and toolkits, and to transform the scientific results into actionable planning options and policy considerations for North and South America, as well as the wider global community.