Collaborative Research: Diagnosing Global Climatic Responses to Large Volcanic Eruptions in Climate Reconstructions and Model Simulations

这一项目的具体研究工作包括提供关于大规模火山爆发后温度和水文气候时空变化的基于代理的全球估计。 由于新的古气候数据同化产品，这可能会提供火山如何影响地表温度，水文气候和气候动态变化的新见解，代理估计的气候对火山活动的响应的全球图片现在是可能的。该项目的最终目的是量化风险并提高社会对大规模火山爆发影响的气候变化的准备。研究团队打算通过评估多个古气候数据同化输出的响应的时间持续性和地面实况，根据其他最先进的代理重建和文件证据进行估计，以实现该项目的研究目标。研究人员还将描述动态气候响应如何在重建的海面温度和大气压力指数中表现出来，以及热带辐合带（ITCZ）的定位。 所有这些反应都将按季节和喷发纬度进行评估。基于代理的估计将与共同时代模拟的集合进行比较，以描述火山爆发的动力响应，并了解基于代理的产品，火山强迫估计和耦合气候模型中的相关不确定性。潜在的更广泛影响包括培训两名研究生，为本科生举办旨在鼓励科学事业的年度研讨会，该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The specific research effort for this project involves providing proxy-based global estimates of the spatiotemporal changes in temperature and hydroclimate after large volcanic eruptions. A global picture of proxy-estimated climate responses to volcanism is now possible because of new paleoclimate data assimilation products, which may provide new insights into how volcanoes influence changes in surface temperatures, hydroclimate, and climate dynamics. The ultimate aim of the project is to quantify risks and improve societal preparedness for climatic variations influenced by large volcanic eruptions.The research team intends to achieve the project’s research goals by assessing the temporal persistence of responses across multiple paleoclimate data assimilation outputs and ground-truth the estimates against other state-of-the-art proxy reconstructions and documentary evidence. The researchers will also characterize how dynamic climate responses are manifest in reconstructed sea-surface temperature and atmospheric pressure indices, as well as the positioning of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). All of these responses will be assessed seasonally and in terms of eruption latitudes. The proxy-based estimates will in turn be compared to an ensemble of Common Era simulations to characterize the dynamical responses to volcanic eruptions and understand associated uncertainties in the proxy-based products, volcanic forcing estimates, and the coupled climate models.The potential Broader Impacts include training two graduate students, hosting an annual workshop event for undergraduates aimed at encouraging careers in science, and recruiting women and underrepresented minorities through the AGU Bridge Program.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.