Multiple-site seismic hazard assessment

经典的单点Cornell-McGuire概率地震危险评估（PSHA）被广泛用于地震危险测绘和设计规范的制定，它不允许对分布结构和设施的多地点危险进行直接估计：在几个地点同时超过特定地面运动水平的（年）概率是多少？考虑到地震动相关，可以将经典方法扩展到多场址问题。我们研究了多位置PSHA，并与经典的逐点PSHA进行了比较，使用蒙特卡罗模拟。具体项目有：(1)多位置PSHA算法的开发；(2)分析了多地点地形、地震动相关性和地震烈度对多地点PSHA的影响；(3)研究了多地点PSHA与经典逐点PSHA的对应关系和差异，分析了经典PSHA程序用于简化多地点危害评价的可能性。这个项目是创新的，因为到目前为止我们的研究问题只做了很少的尝试。

The classical point wise Cornell-McGuire probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), which is widely used for seismic hazard mapping and development of design codes, does not allow direct estimation of multiple-location hazard for distributed structures and facilities: what is the (annual) probability that specific level of ground motion will be exceeded simultaneously in several sites? It is possible to extent the classical methodology to the multiple sites problem considering also ground-motion correlation. We study multiple-location PSHA, as compared with the classical point wise PSHA, using Monte Carlo simulation. Specific items are:(1) Development of the algorithms for multiple-location PSHA;(2) Analysis of the role of the geometry of multiple sites, correlation of ground motion, and evel of seimicity for multiple-location PSHA;(3) Study of correspondence and differences between multiple-location PSHA and classical point wise PSHA and analysis of possibility of utilization of classical PSHA procedures for simplified multiple-location hazard assessment.The project is innovative because only few attempts have been made so far regarding our research questions.