Collaborative Research: P2C2: Reconstructing Northeast Mexico Hydroclimate since the Last Interglacial Period

大多数气候模式显示，由于气候变暖，整个墨西哥的干旱程度加剧。然而，仪器资料、现有的古气候代理记录和气候模式模拟表明，该地区的降水对自然循环的内部气候模式具有显著的年际至年代际变化。考虑到干旱频率和强度增加对经济、农业和公共供水问题的潜在严重影响，更全面地了解自然变率和人为气候变化对墨西哥和美国西南部水资源的影响是很重要的。低纬度地区水文气候记录的发展对于评估区域气候对外部强迫和气候变率内部模态的响应、调查热带和高纬度地区之间的遥相关以及评估气候模式具有至关重要的意义。这项工作将解决有关气候系统的几个关键问题，包括：(1)墨西哥东北部的水文气候是否随北半球夏季日照而变化？(2)海因里希事件期间大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）强度的突然减弱是否导致了墨西哥东北部的干燥状况？(3)年代际到多年代际尺度的降雨变化模式是否与大西洋和/或太平洋海面温度有关？该项目包括利用洞穴沉积物更好地了解水文气候的潜力。该项目还将有助于研究生的科学培训和专业发展，其中包括一名墨西哥裔美国女性和多名本科生。首席研究员是一名美国土著女性，在过去的六年里，她一直指导美国印第安人夏季地球系统科学研究所，这是一个为土著高中生提供的为期两周的住宿项目。研究人员和学生将把这项研究的各个方面纳入现有的推广工作，包括研究生院在一年一度的奇卡诺人/西班牙裔和美洲原住民科学进步协会（SACNAS）和美国印第安人科学与工程协会（AISES）会议上的推广，当地教室的气候科学课程，以及在剑桥科学节上的演讲。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The majority of climate models show enhanced aridity throughout Mexico as a result of climatic warming. However, instrumental data, existing paleoclimate proxy records, and climate model simulations demonstrate that precipitation in the region exhibits substantial interannual to decadal scale variability in response to naturally recurring internal climate modes. A more complete understanding of the impacts of natural variability and forced anthropogenic climate change on water resources in Mexico and the southwestern U.S. is important given the potentially serious impacts of increased drought frequency and magnitude on economic, agricultural, and public water supply issues.Development of hydroclimate records from low latitude regions is of critical importance for assessing the response of regional climate to external forcing and internal modes of climate variability, for investigating teleconnections between the tropics and high-latitude regions, and for evaluating climate models. This work will address several key questions about the climate system, including: (1) Does NE Mexican hydroclimate vary in phase with Northern Hemisphere Summer Insolation? (2) Did abrupt decreases in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength during Heinrich Events lead to dry conditions in NE Mexico? (3) Do patterns of decadal to multidecadal scale rainfall variability track Atlantic and/or Pacific sea surface temperatures?This project includes a potential for greater understanding of hydroclimate using cave deposits. The project will also contribute to the scientific training and professional development of graduate students, including one Mexican-American female, and multiple undergraduate students. The lead investigator is a Native American female and for the past six years has directed the American Indian Summer Institute in Earth System Science, a two-week residential program for Indigenous high school students. The researchers and students will incorporate aspects of this research into existing outreach efforts, including graduate school outreach at the annual Society for Advancement of Chicanos/Hispanics and Native Americans in Science (SACNAS) and American Indian Science and Engineering Society (AISES) conferences, climate science lessons at local classrooms, and presentations at the Cambridge Science Festival.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.