Conference on Stochastic Weather Generators

随机天气发生器会议（SWGEN 2018）将于2018年10月2日至4日在科罗拉多州博尔德举行。会议将在国家大气研究中心举行。随机天气生成器（SWGs）是一种数学或统计算法，其模拟值捕获感兴趣的天气或气候变量的统计分布。天气和气候相关现象可能对人类安全产生重大影响，例如洪水、热浪和严重风暴。它们还具有重大的社会和经济影响：季节性水资源规划、作物产量研究和天气波动风险评估都需要对温度、降水、风速和太阳日照等相关天气量进行高分辨率模拟。历史上，SWGs是由领域科学家开发的，用于应用项目，如气候模型的统计降尺度。最近，应用数学和统计科学界对它们的正式发展越来越感兴趣，这反馈到新的建模，估计和模拟技术，然后保证理论研究。SWGEN 2018是美国第一个专门讨论SWGs的会议，旨在向广泛的数学、统计和领域科学家介绍该领域的现状，传播降水、温度、风速和太阳辐射建模的新技术，建立新的合作机会，并确定未来的研究领域。会议将包括主题演讲，海报会议和研究讲座，主题包括数学和统计界对天气模拟的主要兴趣，包括1)可再生能源应用的建模技术，如风和太阳辐照度模拟，2)复杂的非平稳和非均匀过程的建模和模拟，以及3)大尺度时空相干模拟方法。生成真实的时空天气过程需要来自空间和计算统计等领域的新技术。这些方法与目前统计界对大数据建模、估计和模拟技术的兴趣相吻合。其他主题将被考虑，包括非线性过程，高频数据，多尺度模型，极端，模拟或重采样技术，以及非高斯过程在水文，农业，空气质量，保险和环境工程中的应用。将确定和讨论主题之间的联系，以更好地理解数学和统计在这一领域的作用。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The Conference on Stochastic Weather Generators (SWGEN 2018) will be held in Boulder, Colorado on October 2-4, 2018. The conference will be held at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Stochastic weather generators (SWGs) are mathematical or statistical algorithms whose simulated values capture the statistical distribution of weather or climate variables of interest. Weather and climate-related phenomena can have substantial impacts on human safety, for example flooding, heat waves and severe storms. They also have significant societal and economic impacts: seasonal water resource planning, crop yield studies and weather volatility risk assessments all require high resolution simulations of relevant weather quantities such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed and solar insolation. Historically, SWGs were developed by domain scientists for applied projects such as statistical downscaling of climate models. Recently the applied mathematics and statistical science communities have taken increasing interest in their formal development, which feed back into novel modeling, estimation and simulation techniques that then warrant theoretical study. SWGEN 2018 serves as the first conference devoted to SWGs in the United States, and is intended to introduce a wide audience of mathematical, statistical and domain scientists to the current state of the field, disseminate novel techniques for precipitation, temperature, wind speed and solar radiation modeling, to forge new collaborative opportunities and to identify areas of future research.The conference will consist of keynote lectures, a poster session and research talks featuring topics of major interest in mathematical and statistical communities for weather simulation including 1) modeling techniques for renewable energy applications such as wind and solar irradiance simulation, 2) modeling and simulation of complex nonstationary and inhomogeneous processes that evolve over space and time, and 3) large-scale spatiotemporally-coherent simulation methods. Generating realistic spatiotemporal weather processes requires novel techniques from areas such as spatial and computational statistics. These methods dovetail with current interests in the statistical community involving big data modeling, estimation and simulation techniques. Other topics will be considered, including nonlinear processes, high frequency data, multi-scale models, extremes, analog or resampling techniques, and non-Gaussian processes with applications in hydrology, agriculture, air quality, insurance and environmental engineering. Links between topics will be identified and discussed to better understand the role of mathematics and statistics in this field.The conference website is at: https://www2.cisl.ucar.edu/calendar/swgen-2018-stochastic-weather-generators-conferenceThis award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.