Economic Shocks, the Dispersion of Consumer Preferences and the Assessment of Price and Product Strategies

在这个项目中，我们调查经济冲击的后果，如立法举措，对消费者偏好的分散，消费者偏好的可能变化，以及随后对消费品和耐用品市场上企业的定价和品牌战略的影响。本研究的重点是模型异质性揭示消费者的喜好，使用汇总或分解的销售信息。在第二步中，我们研究了经济冲击对消费者福利的影响，以及通过市场的供给方对企业及其竞争对手的盈利能力的影响。消费者估价的离散度变化对企业营销战略和战术（如定价和产品供应）的经济冲击的经济后果需要更多的研究关注。我们的研究主题的一个例子是汽车制造商，他们改变其产品供应以应对政府法规的变化，即，通过提供低动力引擎或低油耗的汽车。一般来说，消费者不会一致地喜欢制造商的行为，这些行为可能会影响消费者的偏好，从而使需求曲线不仅向内或向外移动，而且会旋转，因为异质消费者对特定产品的支付意愿的分布会发生变化。另一个例子与价格点的存在有关，这意味着接近某个阈值的价格更容易观察到。消费者可能会认为低于价格点的变化比价格点或价格点以上的变化更少阻碍，这可能导致产品价格的非线性影响。因此，在新的价格政策或强烈的成本冲击下，对价格点附近价格变化的个人偏好的理解对于解释产品的总体需求具有决定性意义，例如，作为对原材料成本急剧上升的反应。本研究项目的一个重要特点是，我们应用市场需求和供应的结构模型，并考虑到消费者偏好的异质性，在非耐用品或耐用品市场的总需求或非总需求建模。我们希望我们的结果将提高我们的理解之间的联系，在消费者的偏好和企业的行为，以响应这些偏好的变化。这些见解将增强我们对企业应如何应对外部诱发的转型（例如，宏观经济冲击），以及政府和立法举措应如何考虑这些反应。因此，这项研究的结果将是相关的监管机构和管理人员。

In this project, we investigate the consequences of economic shocks, such as legislative initiatives, on the dispersion of consumer preferences, possible changes in consumer preferences and the subsequent effects on the pricing and brand strategies of firms in markets of consumer goods and durable goods. This research focuses on modeling heterogeneity in revealed consumer preferences, using aggregate or disaggregate sales information. In a second step, we study the implications of economic shocks on consumer welfare and implications on the profitability of firms and their competitors via the supply side of the market. The economic consequences of changes in the dispersion of consumer valuations in response to economic shocks for firms' marketing strategies and tactics, e.g. pricing and product supply, require more attention of research. An example of our subject of study is a car manufacturer who changes its product offerings in response to changes in governmental regularizations, i.e., by offering cars with less powered engines or less fuel consumption. In general consumers will not unanimously like manufacturer's actions which may affect consumer preferences in such a way that the demand curve will not only move inwards or outwards but that it will rotate because the distribution of the willingness of heterogeneous consumers to pay for a particular product will change. Another example is related to the existence of price points, which means that prices near a certain threshold are more commonly observable. Consumers may perceive changes below the price point as less obstructive than at or above the price point which may result in non-linear effects of product prices. Therefore, the comprehension of individual preferences for changes of prices near the price points is decisive for explaining the overall demand for a product under new price politics or strong cost shocks, e.g. as a response to sharp increases in raw material costs.An important feature of this research project is that we apply structural models for demand and supply of a market and we account for heterogeneity in consumer preferences when modeling aggregate or disaggregate demand in nondurable or durable goods markets.We expect that our results will improve our understanding of the links between changes in the consumer preferences and the behavior of firms in response to these preferences. These insights will enhance our understanding of how firms should react to exogenously induced transformations (e.g., a macro-economic shock) and how government and legislative initiatives should consider these reactions. Thus, the results of this research will be relevant for regulators and managers.