RII Track-4: Winter Weather Whiplash and its Impacts on Socio-Ecological Systems

非技术性描述在大众媒体中，“天气鞭打”描述了天气的快速变化，例如从干旱到洪水或野火到倾盆大雨，可能导致巨大的经济和社会成本。科学家们最近采用了“天气鞭梢”的概念来说明天气条件极端变化的生态后果。大众媒体和科学文献都缺乏对冬季天气快速逆转如何影响自然系统和人类社区的理解。需要更深入地了解这些事件、它们随时间变化的方式以及它们的影响程度，以减轻它们的潜在风险。本项目将通过对位于马里兰州安纳波利斯的国家社会环境综合中心（SESYNC）的长期访问来促进这种理解。在那里，PI将：1）制定一个分类方案，对不同类型的冬季天气鞭打事件进行分类; 2）使用新的统计技术检查这些事件是否以及如何随着时间的推移而变化; 3）通过评估冬季天气鞭打对生命和财产的影响来确定其影响。该项目将推动冬季天气挥鞭作为一种新型极端事件的科学理念，同时提高公众对冬季天气挥鞭的驱动因素和影响的认识。复合极端事件是一类极端事件，由于其对自然系统和人类社区的巨大影响，在科学，政策和风险管理界受到越来越多的关注。“天气鞭打”是一个更口语化的短语，用于描述复合极端天气事件，可能包括从干旱到洪水，野火到倾盆大雨，或从炎热到寒冷的条件。之前媒体对天气鞭打的报道，以及过去对复合极端的研究，在很大程度上忽略了冬季天气鞭打事件。然而，冬季天气的复合极端可能会以独特的方式影响物理，自然和人类系统。该项目的目标是通过对位于马里兰州安纳波利斯的国家社会环境综合中心（SESYNC）的长期访问，制定一个定量框架，以了解冬季天气挥鞭事件的驱动因素和影响。在居住期间，PI将：1）通过查阅政府数据库，进行关键线人访谈和审查历史媒体，开发冬季天气挥鞭事件的类型学; 2）通过量化复合极端行为的统计技术，研究这些事件是否以及如何随着时间的推移而变化; 3）通过评估冬季天气挥鞭对生命和财产的影响来确定其影响。主要产出将是面向科学界和公众的出版物和介绍。该奖学金的成果包括发展PI的能力，围绕冬季气候变化的主题进行聚合研究，同时也有助于使PI的家庭机构机构在应对社会重大挑战方面成为全国领导者。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Nontechnical DescriptionIn the popular media, "weather whiplash" describes how rapid changes in weather, for example from drought to deluge or wildfire to downpour, can result in substantial economic and social costs. Scientists have recently adopted the "weather whiplash" concept to illustrate the ecological consequences of extreme changes in weather conditions. Missing from both the popular media and the scientific literature is an understanding of how rapid reversals in winter weather can impact natural systems and human communities. A deeper understanding of these events, the ways in which they have changed over time, and the extent of their impacts is needed in order to mitigate their potential risks. This project will advance this understanding by making an extended visit to the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) in Annapolis, Maryland. While there, the PI will: 1) develop a classification scheme to categorize different types of winter weather whiplash events; 2) examine whether and how these events have changed through time with novel statistical techniques; and 3) determine the impacts of winter weather whiplash by evaluating their costs to life and property. The project will both advance the scientific idea of winter weather whiplash as a new type of extreme event while also increasing public awareness of the drivers and impacts of winter weather whiplash. Technical DescriptionCompound extremes are a class of extreme events receiving increased attention in scientific, policy, and risk management circles due to their outsized impacts on natural systems and human communities. "Weather whiplash" is a more colloquial phrase for describing compound extreme weather events that might include shifts from drought to deluge, wildfire to downpour, or hot to cold conditions. Prior media coverage of weather whiplash, as well as past research on compound extremes, have largely ignored winter weather whiplash events. Yet compound extremes in winter weather may impact physical, natural, and human systems in unique ways. The goal of this project is to develop a quantitative framework for understanding the drivers and impacts of winter weather whiplash events through an extended visit to the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) in Annapolis, MD. While in residence, the PI will: 1) develop a typology of winter weather whiplash events by consulting government databases, conducting key informant interviews, and reviewing historical media; 2) examine whether and how these events have changed through time with a statistical technique that quantifies the behavior of compound extremes; and 3) determine the impacts of winter weather whiplash by evaluating their costs to life and property. The primary outputs will be publications and presentations for both scientific and public audiences. The fellowship's outcomes include developing the PI's abilities to engage in convergence research around the theme of winter climate change while also helping make the PI's home institution institution a national leader in addressing societal grand challenges.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.