RII Track-4: Predicting Beaver Colonization of the Arctic and Creation of Tundra Stream Oases

在上个世纪，北极苔原生物群落一直在波动，以应对气候变化。野生动物，如驼鹿、雪鞋兔和现在的海狸，已经利用灌木栖息地的增加，将它们的活动范围从北方森林扩展到北极苔原。海狸池塘的洪水导致永久冻土融化，可能比气候变化更快地改变河流和周围的生态系统。为此，将使用过去半个世纪的卫星图像来探测海狸池塘的形成及其对冻土带环境的后续影响。 该项目还利用卫星图像绘制了北极苔原上海狸、驼鹿和雪鞋野兔的当前栖息地。这将与未来北极气候和苔原植被的模型相结合，以预测海狸的未来分布及其影响，以及驼鹿和雪鞋野兔。Tape博士和一名博士后研究员将在北方亚利桑那大学与卫星图像分析专家Scott Goetz博士和Logan Berner博士一起为这个项目工作六个月。这对Tape博士来说是一个宝贵的机会，可以与这些科学家一起工作，并开发有用的空间分析工具来推进他的职业生涯。磁带博士和他的博士后研究员将返回阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯与新发现的专业知识，以加强他们的职业生涯和研究能力在阿拉斯加。现有的植被，永久冻土和淡水模型预测可以理解地不包括海狸，因为它们还没有被认为是北极苔原环境的一部分。考虑到海狸对其他生态系统的深远影响，海狸的到来及其对苔原环境的巨大改变可能标志着北极河岸和淡水生态系统发展轨迹的基准，而这一点一直未被注意到。该项目采用了一种新的方法，涉及遥感海狸池塘的形成。拟议工作的科学目标是：（1）利用遥感技术，在海狸定居之前，利用陆地卫星植被指数量化已知海狸地点的海狸灌木栖息地要求;（2）通过结合海狸对灌木栖息地的要求和区域陆地卫星图像，确定阿拉斯加北坡未定居海狸的潜在栖息地;（3）利用卫星图像评估海狸定居对植被和地表水的影响;（4）结合已知的灌木生境要求和区域陆地卫星图像，绘制阿拉斯加北坡驼鹿和雪鞋野兔未来的生境图。该项目为博士后研究人员和Tape博士提供了一个令人兴奋的机会，可以在北方亚利桑那大学的同事Scott Goetz博士和Logan Berner博士的监督下开发他们的时间序列卫星图像空间分析工具。Tape博士和他的博士后研究员将回到阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯，提高阿拉斯加的知名度，感知和研究能力。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

Non-TechnicalThe arctic tundra biome has been fluctuating in response to climate change during the last century. Wildlife, such as moose, snowshoe hares, and now beavers, have exploited the increase in their shrub habitat by extending their range from the boreal forest into the arctic tundra. Inundation from beaver ponds causes permafrost thaw, potentially altering streams and surrounding ecosystems more rapidly than climate change alone. To this end, satellite imagery from the last half-century will be used to detect the formation of beaver ponds and their subsequent impacts to the tundra environment. This project also uses satellite imagery to map the current habitat of beavers, moose, and snowshoe hares in the arctic tundra. This will be combined with models of future arctic climate and tundra vegetation to predict the future distribution of beavers and their impacts, as well as moose and snowshoe hares. Dr. Tape and a postdoctoral researcher will spend six months working on this project at Northern Arizona University with Dr. Scott Goetz and Dr. Logan Berner, who are experts in satellite image analysis. This is a valuable opportunity for Dr. Tape to work alongside these scientists and to develop useful spatial analysis tools to advance his career. Dr. Tape and his post-doctoral researcher will return to the University of Alaska Fairbanks with newfound expertise to bolster their careers and the research capacity in Alaska. TechnicalExisting vegetation, permafrost, and freshwater model projections understandably do not include beavers, because they are not yet recognized as part of the arctic tundra environment. Given the profound impacts of beavers in other ecosystems, the arrival of beavers and their dramatic modifications to the tundra environment may signal a benchmark in the trajectory of arctic riparian and freshwater ecosystems that has gone unnoticed. This project uses a novel method involving remote sensing of beaver pond formation. The scientific goals of the proposed work are: (1) to use remote sensing to quantify beaver shrub habitat requirements at known beaver sites prior to their colonization using Landsat vegetation indices; (2) to identify potential beaver habitat across the uncolonized North Slope of Alaska by combining shrub habitat requirements for beavers and regional Landsat imagery; (3) to evaluate impacts of beaver colonization on vegetation and surface water using satellite imagery; and (4) to map future moose and snowshoe hare habitat on the North Slope of Alaska by combining known shrub habitat requirements and regional Landsat imagery. The project offers an exciting opportunity for a postdoctoral researcher and Dr. Tape to develop their tools for spatial analysis of time series satellite imagery with oversight from colleagues Dr. Scott Goetz and Dr. Logan Berner at Northern Arizona University. Dr. Tape and his postdoctoral researcher will return to the University of Alaska Fairbanks, increasing the visibility, perception, and research capacity in Alaska.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.