Toward Quantitative Understanding of Tropical Cyclone Intensification: A physically Based Dynamical System Model Approach

在过去的几十年里，由于计算机能力的增强和更好的预测模型，对飓风(也被称为热带气旋(TCS))路径的预测得到了稳步改进。然而，我们预测TC强度的能力几乎没有进步。这是沿海社区特别关心的问题，因为对登陆飓风的准备工作取决于其预测的强度，就像他们在轨迹预报中所做的那样。进展有限的一个关键原因是我们对控制热带气旋强度的过程缺乏基本的了解。本项目通过建立一个动力系统模型来解决强度问题，该模型捕捉了强度演变的基本成分。该模式的一个新特征是一个控制热带气旋核心能量转换率的动力效率参数，该参数由内部热带气旋过程和热带气旋与大尺度环境的相互作用共同决定。研究结果将有助于量化各种因素对热带气旋强度变化的贡献，并为强度预测提供一个物理模型。这项工作产生了更广泛的影响，因为工作的社会价值导致了对登陆TC强度预测的改进。该项目还为研究生提供支持和培训，研究成果将纳入PI的课堂教学。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Over the last few decades forecasts of the tracks of hurricanes, also referred to as tropical cyclones (TCs), have improved steadily due to increased computer power and better forecast models. And yet, there has been little advancement in our ability to predict TC intensity. This is a particular concern for coastal communities, as preparations for a landfalling hurricane depend as much on its predicted intensity as they do on the track forecast. A key reason for the limited advancement is that we lack a basic understanding of the processes that control TC intensity.This project addresses the intensity question by developing a dynamical system model which captures essential ingredients of intensity evolution. A novel feature of the model is a dynamical efficiency parameter which governs energy conversion rates in the TC core, and is determined by both internal TC processes and TC interactions with the large-scale environment. Results from the research will help quantify contributions of various factors to TC intensity change, and also provide a physically based model for intensity prediction. The work has broader impacts due to the societal value of work leading to improvements in intensity predictions for landfalling TCs. The project also provides support and training to a graduate student, and research results will be incorporated into the the PI's classroom teaching.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.