A Multi-level Dynamically Coupled Model for Evaluating Older Adults' Vulnerability and Resiliency to Disasters

本研究的总体目标是更深入地了解老年人对自然灾害的脆弱性和复原力。将构建和验证一个新的模型，以指导未来在人口老龄化和新兴技术存在下的灾害相关研究。这项研究包括在灾难发生之前、期间和之后为老年人设计和提供个性化援助，以提高他们的生存能力和加速恢复。将提供关于如何有效地向老年人传达龙卷风警报以及如何最好地动员保护行动和减灾行为的新见解。计划开展的活动旨在促进研究成果的多样性、向公众宣传和传播。将开发一个原型移动应用程序，以教育公众备灾和减灾，并为研究目的收集补充数据。这项研究将系统地解释老年人和年轻人之间的根本差异，以及老年人在准备、采取行动和缓解方面的因素、过程和结果方面的差异。它假设了一个潜在的选择、优化和补偿过程，在这个过程中，老年人在资源下降的情况下将损失最小化。以人口为基础的分层随机抽样策略将用于在龙卷风事件受访者的纵向电话调查中对老年人进行抽样。利用潜在类分析、多层次分析和结构方程模型，本研究将评估多层次因素对个体决策的影响，以及导致结果的不同因素，包括预警获取模式、决策模式、生理和心理影响、风险感知、预警前后的准备和缓解。将绘制变量和参数图，以直观地呈现各个社区老年人口脆弱性和复原力的空间分布。因此，本研究将在现有知识的基础上，对极端压力下的老年人进行更细致、更有质感的描绘，并探索社交媒体和其他新兴通信技术带来的未来机遇和挑战。

The overarching objective of this research is to attain a deeper understanding of vulnerability and resiliency of older adults to natural disasters. A new model will be constructed and validated to guide future disaster-related studies in the presence of aging populations and emerging technologies. Included in the research is the design and delivery of personalized assistance to older individuals before, during, and after disasters to increase their survivability and accelerate recovery. Fresh insights into how to effectively communicate tornado warnings to older adults and how to best mobilize protective action and mitigation behaviors will be provided. Activities are planned to promote diversity, public outreach, and dissemination of research outcomes. A prototype mobile app will be developed to educate the public on disaster preparedness and mitigation as well as collecting supplementary data for research purpose.This research will systematically explain fundamental differences between older and younger adults as well as disparities among older adults in factors, processes, and outcomes with respect to preparedness, action taking, and mitigation. It hypothesizes an underlying selection, optimization, and compensation process in which older adults minimize losses despite declining resources. A population-based stratified random sampling strategy will be used to oversample older adults in a longitudinal telephone survey of tornadic events respondents. Using latent class analysis, multilevel analysis, and structural equation modeling, this research will estimate the effect of multilevel factors on individual's decision-making and different factors leading to outcomes including patterns of access to warnings, decision-making patterns, physical and psychological impact, risk perceptions, and preparedness and mitigation before and after warnings. Variables and parameters will be mapped to visually present spatial distributions of vulnerability and resiliency of older populations in various communities. As the result, this research will add a more granular and textured depiction of older adults under extreme stress to the current knowledge and explore future opportunities and challenges presented by social media and other emerging communication technologies.