Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Scenarios for providing multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity in viticultural landscapes

需要对生物多样性和生态系统服务的社会经济和全球环境趋势之间的复杂相互作用进行创新研究，以帮助制定更具信息量的情景，以应对环境和人类发展挑战。为了克服这些挑战，需要采用自然-人类系统耦合的方法和分析。这些方案提供了生物多样性和生态系统服务的改进方案，将直接和间接驱动因素的产出结合在一起，如土地利用、入侵物种、过度开发、生物多样性、环境变化和污染。由此产生的模型提供了一种最先进的方法，导致更准确的定量评估、更好的土地利用和更有效的生态系统服务。这一研究项目涉及致力于推进可持续生态系统服务和维护农业景观中基本生物多样性的研究人员联盟，重点是葡萄栽培系统中的问题。本课程将考察土壤肥力、虫害控制、生物多样性保护和作物生产等因气候变化而影响土地利用、经济和地方、景观和区域决策的驱动因素。这个包括美国学术界成员在内的跨学科研究团队将开发和测试预测模型，以检查和整合不同的土地利用和生物多样性情景，并在欧洲各地的葡萄种植区未来的农场管理中进行空间尺度的整合。团队成员与目标地区的主要利益相关者，包括葡萄酒种植者、非政府组织、地区和国家当局以及推广服务人员，进行了广泛和有据可查的合作。这项研究涉及反复收集利益相关者的意见，以帮助开发和测试预测模型，并将其结果转化为用户驱动的决策支持工具，为葡萄酒产区的葡萄园农民和地区当局提供更好的信息和方法，说明如何以更可持续和经济的方式管理葡萄园。这项工作的更广泛影响包括美国、奥地利、德国、法国、西班牙、罗马尼亚和荷兰之间的国际合作。这一大型国际合作将有助于在国家和社区之间建立协作与合作的桥梁；让从地方社区到国家环境保护机构等利益攸关方参与这一进程；开发影响深远、丰富、可公开获取的数据资源，供各国和各学科的自然和社会科学家使用。除了其科学影响外，该项目还对一种重要的经济作物的经济产生了社会影响，这可能也会对美国的葡萄酒种植区产生影响。其他影响包括研究和教育的整合以及博士后奖学金的培训。该奖项支持美国研究人员参与一个由来自23个国家的26个资助机构组成的联盟通过贝尔蒙特论坛征集“生物多样性和生态系统服务情景”的建议的项目。这一呼吁是一项多边倡议，旨在支持有助于开发情景、模型和决策支持工具的研究项目，以了解和解决地球面临的关键问题。竞赛的目标是改进和应用参与性情景方法，以提高研究的相关性和接受度，并解决影响驱动因素和政策干预的建模方法方面的差距。它还将开发和传播与模型相关的不确定程度，以改善数据可获取性并填补知识空白。支持美国的基金这个更大的国际财团的参与者致力于使用西班牙、法国、德国、奥地利、荷兰和罗马尼亚政府资助的数据库来合成虫害控制数据。这些数据将被用来开发统计模型，预测欧洲葡萄园害虫和捕食者丰度的变化。这些模型将根据欧洲同事收集的节肢动物生物多样性、病虫害防治和经济表现的独立现场测量数据，根据五个案例研究地区的景观复杂性和管理选择的梯度进行验证。这项研究的结果将促进人们对各种生态系统服务的后果的理解，这些服务试图应对紧迫的挑战，如气候变化、全球生物多样性下降、入侵物种和不可持续的土地利用。将通过地方重点小组收集那些密切参与葡萄种植过程和土地管理的人的基本信息，这些小组将产生利益攸关方驱动的情景。这些案例研究将被用来推动将创建的模型，并用于审查提供可持续利用的最有效方式。经过验证的模型将用于探索在一系列社会、经济和生态限制下，替代土地使用决策对生物多样性、生态系统服务和作物生产的影响。来自其他国家的合作者通过其相关的国家资助组织提供资金。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Innovative research on the complex interaction of socio-economic and global environmental trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services is needed to help develop more informative scenarios for addressing environmental and human development challenges. To overcome these challenges coupled natural-human systems approaches and analyses are needed. These provide improved scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services that couple the outputs of direct and indirect drivers, such as land use, invasive species, overexploitation, biodiversity, environmental change, and pollution. The resulting models provide a methodological state-of-the art that results in more accurate quantitative assessments, better land use, and more effective ecosystem services. This research project involves a coalition of investigators dedicated to advancing sustainable ecosystem services and maintaining essential biodiversity in agricultural landscapes with a focus on issues in vinicultural systems. Drivers such as soil fertility, pest regulation, biodiversity conservation, and crop production as a function of climate change that influence land use, economics, and policy decisions at the local, landscape, and regional level will be examined. The interdisciplinary research team, which includes members from the US academic sector, will develop and test predictive models that examine and integrate different land use and biodiversity scenarios across spatial scales for future farm management in viticultural regions across Europe. Members of the team have extensive and well-documented collaborations with key stakeholders in the targeted regions including wine growers, non-governmental organizations, regional and national authorities, and extension service personnel. This research involves the iterative collection of input from stakeholders to help develop and test predictive models and to translate their results into a user-driven, decision-support tool that will provide wine-region vineyard farmers and regional authorities with better information and approaches on how to manage vinyards more sustainably and economically. Broader impacts of the work include international collaboration between the US, Austria, Germany, France, Spain, Romania, and The Netherlands. This large international collaboration will help build bridges collaboration and cooperation between countries and communities; engage stakeholders, ranging from local communities to national environmental protection agencies, in the process; and develop a far-reaching and rich, publicly accessible data resource that will be available to natural and social scientists across countries and disciplines. In addition to its scientific impact, this project has societal impacts in terms of the economies of an important cash crop which will likely also impacts on US winegrowing regions. Additional impacts include the integration of research and education and the training of a postdoctoral scholar.This award supports U.S. researchers participating in a project competitively selected by a coalition of 26 funding agencies from 23 countries through the Belmont Forum call for proposals on "Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services". The call was a multilateral initiative designed to support research projects that contribute to the development of scenarios, models, and decision-support tools for understanding and solving critical issues facing our planet. The goal of the competition was to improve and apply participatory scenario methods to enhance research relevance and its acceptance and to address gaps in methods for modelling impact drivers and policy interventions. It was also to develop and communicate levels of uncertainty associated with the models, to improve data accessibility and fill gaps in knowledge. Funds support U.S. participants in the larger international consortium are dedicated to synthesizing pest-control data using government-sponsored databases from Spain, France, Germany, Austria, The Netherlands, and Romania. The data will be used to develop statistical models that predict variation in pest and predator abundances across European vineyards. These models will be validated against independent field measurements, collected by European colleagues, of arthropod biodiversity, pest control, and economic performance along gradients of landscape complexity and management options across five case-study regions. Results of the study will advance understanding of the consequences of various ecosystem services that try to address pressing challenges such as climate change, decline in worldwide biodiversity, invasive species, and unsustainable land use. Essential information from those intimately involved in vinicultural processes and land management will be collected via local focus groups which will generate stakeholder-driven scenarios. These case studies will be used to drive models that will be created and used to examine the most effective way of providing sustainable use. The validated models will be used to explore the biodiversity, ecosystem service, and crop production consequences of alternative land-use decisions under a range of social, economic and ecological restrictions. Collaborators from other countries are funded through their associated national funding organizations.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.