INFEWS: U.S.-China: Integrated systems modeling for sustainable FEW nexus under multi-factor global changes: Innovative comparison between Yellow River and Mississippi River Basins

食物、能源和水（少数）是维持人类生命和福祉所必需的。到2050年，世界人口预计将达到96亿，为满足日益增长的需求，全球和区域提供充足和负担得起的少数资源的能力对社会稳定和经济发展将越来越重要。长期以来，粮食生产过程中对水系统的过量氮负荷一直是人类获得清洁水的一个严重问题，而能源生产对水的需求不断增加进一步加剧了水资源短缺和污染。本项目解决了FEW关系中的一个重要研究挑战：在有限的资源和不断变化的环境下，我们如何在空间和时间上平衡食物-能源-清洁水（FEWc）的生产？该项目的重点是美国的密西西比河流域（MRB）和中国的黄河流域（YRB），因为这两个流域具有全球重要性，并且在满足日益增长的对FEW的需求方面面临着巨大的挑战。MRB河是北美最大的河流流域，约占美国毗邻地区的41%，以及美国玉米带的大部分地区。长江流域是中国第二大流域，占中国国土面积的11.5%，是重要的粮食和能源产区，养活了1.07亿人口。该项目的研究成果将有助于在气候变化、空气污染、城市化、土地和水资源利用变化以及社会经济发展等多因素全球变化背景下优化资源利用效率和预测FEWc的可持续性。该项目将通过暑期学校项目、研讨会和会议，以及大学在美国和中国的对外参与的广泛战略，促进科学交流和利益相关者参与FEWc关系的关键问题。该项目还将帮助决策者就提高粮食、能源和清洁水的质量和数量的未来政策做出明智的决策。该项目的总体目标是了解和量化FEWc系统内复杂的相互作用和反馈，以实现流域规模的可持续FEW供应（即优化资源分配，以最大限度地提高作物产量和能源生产，并最大限度地减少水污染）。该项目将建立一个整合作物、水文生物地球化学、能源和经济模型的综合系统建模框架，以促进我们对FEWc关系内部复杂相互作用的理解和量化，并预测未来气候和资源利用情景下流域FEWc的可持续性。综合系统模型将在MRB（以清洁水为目标的FEW）和YRB（以节水为目标的FEW）上进行测试，以检查这两个集约化管理的河流流域中FEWc联系的限制因素。通过建模评估和预测，美中联合研究小组将对1960 - 2050年两河流域限制因素、FEWc可持续性和管理潜力的时空变化进行一系列假设测试。受益于中美联合项目，这种流域间比较将检验对低碳水化合物联系的不同重视程度，并形成一种定量和计算建模工具，适用于全球其他具有类似低碳水化合物冲突的集约化管理景观。该项目将1)描述FEWc的动态特征以及自然和人为驱动力的机制；2)构建流域尺度FEWc交互、反馈和社会经济约束的集成系统建模框架；3)在全球变化的背景下，评估和预测资源利用和管理实践在追求FEWc中的作用。该模型框架验证的管理方案可能会改变耕作方式、能源结构，最重要的是，增加居民的清洁水供应。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Food, energy, and water (FEW) are essential to sustain human life and well-being. To meet the growing demands of human population that is expected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050, the global and regional capability in providing abundant and affordable FEW will be increasingly important to social stability and economic development. Excessive nitrogen loading to water systems during food production has long been a serious problem for humans to access clean water, while the increasing water demand by energy production further exacerbates water scarcity and pollution. This project addresses an important research challenge at the FEW nexus: How can we balance Food-Energy-clean Water (FEWc) production, both spatially and temporally, with limited resources and changing environment? The project focus is on the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) in the U.S. and the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in China because these two basins are of global importance and are facing paramount challenges in meeting the growing demands for FEW. MRB, the largest river basin in North America, drains about 41% of the conterminous U.S. and most of the U.S. Corn Belt. The YRB, the second largest river basin in China, drains 11.5% of land area in China and is a key food and energy-producing region supporting 107 million residents. Research outcomes from this project will shed light on optimizing resource use efficiencies and predicting FEWc sustainability in the context of multiple-factor global changes including climate change, air pollution, urbanization, land and water use changes, and social-economic development. This project will foster science communication and stakeholder engagement for critical issues in the FEWc nexus, through summer school program, workshops and conferences, and university's broad strategy of external engagement in both U.S. and China. This project will also assist policymakers in making informed decisions regarding future policies that will enhance the quality and quantity of food, energy, and clean water.The overarching goal of this project is to understand and quantify the complex interactions and feedbacks within the FEWc system towards a basin-scale sustainable FEW provision (that is, to optimize resource allocation for maximizing crop production and energy generation and minimizing water pollution). The project will build an integrated systems modeling framework that incorporates crop, hydrological-biogeochemical, energy, and economic models, to advance our understanding and quantification of the complex interactions within the FEWc nexus, and predict FEWc sustainability under future climate and resource use scenarios at a basin level. The integrated systems model will be tested on the MRB (a Clean Water-targeted FEW) and the YRB (a Water Conservation-targeted FEW), to examine the limiting factors of FEWc nexus in these two intensively-managed while contrasting river basins. Through modeling assessment and predictions, the U.S.-China joint research team will test a series of hypotheses on spatiotemporal variations in limiting factors, sustainability of FEWc, and management potentials across these two river basins from 1960 to 2050. Benefiting from a U.S.-China joint program, such between-basin comparison will test different emphasis of FEWc connections, and form a quantitative and computational modeling tool that is applicable to other intensively-managed landscapes with similar FEWc conflicts across the world. The project will 1) characterize the FEWc dynamics and the mechanisms underlying natural and anthropogenic driving forces; 2) build an integrated systems modeling framework that simulates interactions, feedback, and socioeconomic constraints of FEWc at a basin scale; 3) assess and predict the roles of resource use and management practices in pursuit of FEWc in the context of global changes. The management options verified by this modeling framework will potentially change cultivation practices, energy structure, and most importantly, increase supply of clean water to inhabitants.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.