RAPID: Species on the Move: Tropicalization of Western Atlantic Seagrass Beds

该项目建立在一个正在进行的项目的基础上，该项目研究墨西哥湾北部海草床的热带化，那里的本土物种因大陆陆块而导致气温上升而无法向北迁移。飓风迈克尔开辟了从墨西哥湾到圣约瑟夫湾的新通道，使得热带物种(如鹦鹉鱼)的迁徙增加，相关的风力和风暴潮可能导致绿海龟数量大幅减少。该项目利用飓风过境的机会，研究海龟和鹦鹉鱼作为主要海草的消费者之间的相互作用，并将支持新的和补充的采样，以评估风暴对圣约瑟夫湾正在进行的热带化的影响。海草群落提供主要的生态系统服务，它们对气候变化的适应能力对沿海社区产生了影响。该项目将在NSF资助的网络上扩展，以在飓风引发的增加物种获取的自然实验期间捕获关键的环境信息。除了通过与网络合作伙伴的合作进行指导之外，还将对两名女性早期职业科学家(一名来自服务不足的群体)进行培训。最近，主要飓风迈克尔直接经过美国国家科学基金会合作项目的最北端(佛罗里达州圣乔湾)，该项目的合作研究：西大西洋海草床的热带化引发了关于热带食草动物沿墨西哥湾北部涌入的轨迹和速度的更多问题。飓风迈克尔造成圣布拉斯角沿线许多地区被淹没，并开辟了一条从墨西哥湾到圣约瑟夫湾的新通道。这可能会改变盐度和水温，并将更多的幼虫和成年新兵带到海湾。据记载，飓风会使物种远离低纬活动区域，虽然这可能只是短暂的活动范围转移，但由于冬季寒冷气温的减少，在已经发生热带化的地方有加强建立的潜力。这项研究调查了这些新形成的通道在多大程度上允许热带相关物种的更高迁徙，例如食用翡翠鹦鹉的海草进入圣乔湾。支持新的和补充的实地活动，并利用圣乔湾12年鱼类丰度和物种组成的记录以及2017年圣乔湾绿海龟丰度的种群估计，用于评估风暴对圣乔湾正在进行的热带化的影响，这可能极大地影响我们在NSF资助的站点网络其他地点的合作者的整体结论。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project builds on an ongoing project that studies the tropicalization of seagrass beds in the northern Gulf of Mexico where native species are prevented from moving north as temperature rises because of the continental land mass. Hurricane Michael opened a new pass from the Gulf of Mexico to St Joseph Bay, enabling elevated immigration of tropical species (e.g. parrotfish), and the associated winds and storm surge likely decimated green turtle populations. This project takes advantage of the hurricane's passage to study the interplay of turtles and parrotfish as consumers of the dominant seagrass and will support new and complemental sampling to evaluate the storm's effect on the ongoing tropicalization of St Joseph Bay. Seagrass communities provide major ecosystem services and their resilience to changing climate has consequences for coastal communities. This project will expand on the NSF-funded network to capture critical environmental information during this hurricane-induced natural experiment of increased species access. Training of two female early career scientists (one from an underserved group) will take place in addition to mentoring through collaborations with the partners of the network.The recent passage of Major Hurricane Michael directly over the northernmost site (St. Joe Bay, FL) of the NSF collaborative project "Collaborative Research: The tropicalization of Western Atlantic seagrass beds" has raised additional questions regarding the trajectory and speed of the influx of tropical grazers along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Michael produced numerous overwash areas along Cape San Blas and opened a new pass from the Gulf of Mexico to St. Joseph Bay. This will likely alter salinities and water temperatures and bring additional larval and adult recruits to the Bay. Hurricanes have been documented to move species large distances from their low-latitude home ranges and while these can be only short-lived range shifts, there is potential for enhanced establishment in locations where tropicalization is already occurring owing to the decreasing frequency of cold winter temperatures. This study investigates to what extent these newly formed passes allow elevated immigration of tropically-associated species, such as the seagrass consuming emerald parrotfish into St. Joe Bay. Supporting new and complementary field activities, and leveraging the 12 year record of fish abundance and species composition in St. Joe Bay and the 2017 population estimate of green turtle abundance in the Bay are used to evaluate the storm's effects on the on-going tropicalization of St. Joe Bay that could dramatically affect the overall conclusions of our collaborators in other locations of the NSF funded network of sites.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.