CNH2-L: Transition Dynamics in Integrated Urban Water Systems

城市供水系统既包括有形基础设施，也包括管理其使用的政策。这些系统在设计上能够适应各种供需条件。然而，气候和社会变化给供水系统带来了新的压力，需要进行实质性的变化，也称为过渡，以保持系统的性能。这项研究分析了美国12个大型城市供水系统的过渡，以实现两个目标：1)更好地记录可能促使过渡的各种环境和人为因素之间的相互作用；2)确定哪些基础设施和政策设计选择可以促进实际过渡，以提高可持续性。为了实现这些目标，该项目将收集和分析长期的人类和环境数据，以综合关系和趋势，并开发两个互补的模型，以确定能够导致可持续供水过渡的途径。该项目将直接让利益攸关方参与研究的多个阶段，既学习他们的经验，又确保产出满足他们的需要。该项目还将提供教育和培训机会，帮助学生培养跨领域合作所需的能力，这一技能对于应对当前的环境挑战至关重要。这项拟议的研究利用“融合”的方法来研究如何有效地管理综合城市供水系统，因为它们面临着气候变化、人口增长和其他环境因素带来的越来越大的压力。这项研究将包括系统应激源的纵向分析，水文检测和变化的检查，建立贝叶斯模型来预测应激源超过过渡阈值的概率，以及开发动态模型来确定有希望的设计选择。该项目将通过以下四个方面使城市供水系统受益：1)将机构分析与动态建模相结合，以获得对机构在形成系统动态方面的作用的新见解；2)将水文变化的检测和归属与流域和政策进程联系起来，这将产生关于水文变化驱动因素和影响的新知识；3)综合定量和定性数据、利益攸关方知识以及归纳和演绎建模方法，以提高系统性能；4)确定具体的基础设施和机构设计选择如何影响系统的复原力和过渡概率。将设计与结果联系起来的知识是关键，因为尽管城市无法控制水文或人类系统的动态，但它们可以改变设计选择。研究城市水的过渡也可以提供对先发制人干预有益的其他社会环境挑战的总体洞察。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Urban water-supply systems consist of both physical infrastructure and policies that govern their use. These systems are designed to be adaptable to a wide range of supply and demand conditions. However, climatic and social shifts are placing new stresses on water-supply systems that require substantial changes, also called transitions, to maintain system performance. This research analyzes transitions across 12 large-scale urban water systems in the United States to achieve two goals: 1) to better document the interactions among various environmental and human factors that may prompt transition, and 2) to identify which infrastructure and policy design choices can foster practical transitions to increase sustainability. To accomplish these goals this project will gather and analyze long-term human and environmental data to synthesize relationships and trends, and develop two complementary models to identify pathways that can lead to a sustainable water-supply transition. This project will directly involve stakeholders in multiple stages of the research to both learn from their experiences and ensure that outputs meet their needs. This project also will provide education and training opportunities to help students develop the competencies needed to collaborate across fields, a skill that is essential to tackle current environmental challenges. The proposed research utilizes a "convergence" approach to investigate how integrated urban water systems can be managed effectively as they face increasing pressures from climate change, population growth, and other environmental factors. This research will involve a longitudinal analysis of system stressors, an examination of hydrological detection and change, construction of a Bayesian model to forecast the probability of stressors exceeding thresholds for transition, and development of a dynamic model to identify promising design choices. This project will benefit urban water-supply systems in four ways by: 1) combining institutional analysis with dynamic modeling to gain new insights into the role of institutions in shaping system dynamics; 2) linking the detection and attribution of hydrological change to watershed and policy processes, which will result in new knowledge about the drivers and the impacts of hydrological change; 3) synthesizing quantitative and qualitative data, stakeholder knowledge, and inductive and deductive modeling approaches to enhance system performance; 4) identifying how specific infrastructure and institutional design choices affect system resilience and transition probability. Knowledge relating design to outcomes is key because, although cities cannot control the dynamics of hydrological or human systems, they can alter design choices. Examining urban water transitions can also offer general insights for other socio-environmental challenges where preemptive intervention will be beneficial.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.