NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: Arctic Urban Risks and Adaptations (AURA): a co-production framework for addressing multiple changing environmental hazards

新北极航行（NNA）是NSF的十大创意之一。NNA项目解决快速变化的北极地区的趋同科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和地球仪的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。NNA授权从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合知识的共同生产。这个奖项实现了这个目标的一部分。气候变化正在增加北极城市社区对不稳定的永久冻土、野火和冬季降雨等自然灾害的脆弱性。这些灾害使居民和财产处于危险之中，并造成经济成本，家庭、企业和政府必须适应这些相互作用的灾害。这项研究正在绘制详细的地图，显示这三种自然灾害的发生如何在安克雷奇市和费尔班克斯北星星自治市，阿拉斯加州和怀特霍斯，育空地区，加拿大在过去几十年中同时演变，以及它们在未来40年中可能如何变化。跨学科研究团队的经济学家;永冻层，火灾，天气，气候和环境科学家;和政策专家进行跨学科研究北极自然灾害及其对自然和建筑环境和社会的影响。该研究小组与当地政府和非政府组织（NGO），原住民团体，保险公司和居民密切合作，共同制作有关成本，风险以及为减轻和适应这些危害而采取的行动的知识。该团队和利益攸关方合作确定衡量灾害对社会和建筑环境影响的最佳方法，确定权衡和相互作用，制定多灾害风险评估，并为未来的适应性规划提供选择。 该项目是第一个包括气候变化对私人和公共基础设施的影响的项目之一，这一差距限制了对阿拉斯加气候变化影响的理解。 研究结果提供了一个框架，其他北极社区可以用来评估风险和减少气候变化造成的经济损失，并提供了提高复原力的例子。 四年的研究活动包括：（1）自然灾害及其相互作用的空间建模和映射;（2）通过访谈，业主调查和公民科学收集数据以评估感知风险，风险价值和适应成本;（3）成本和风险的经济建模;（4）风险和风险的经济模型。以及（4）在一系列情景规划讲习班中制定一个适应性政策框架，可用于适应和减轻多种灾害，并减少未来的成本和风险。这项研究有助于伙伴社区就如何和在何处建设和管理公共和私营基础设施以及为公共服务提供资金作出更知情的决定。该框架可以被其他北极社区用于评估风险和减少气候变化造成的经济损失。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim. Climate change is increasing vulnerability of Arctic urban communities to natural hazards such as unstable permafrost, wildfire, and rain-in-winter events. These hazards put residents and property at risk and impose economic costs, and households, businesses, and governments must adapt to these interacting hazards. This research is developing detailed maps showing how the occurrence of these three natural hazards has evolved simultaneously in the Municipality of Anchorage and the Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska, and Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada over the past several decades, and how they might change over the next 40 years. The interdisciplinary research team of economists; permafrost, fire, weather, climate, and environmental scientists; and policy experts conducts transdisciplinary research on Arctic natural hazards and their impacts on the natural and built environments and society. The research team works closely with local governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), Indigenous groups, insurance companies, and residents to co-produce knowledge on the costs, risks, and actions taken to mitigate and adapt to these hazards. The team and stakeholders collaborate to determine optimal ways to measure the effects of hazards on society and the built environment, identify trade-offs and interactions, develop a multiple-hazard risk assessment, and generate options for future adaptive planning. This project is one of the first to include effects of climate change on private as well as public infrastructure, a gap which has limited the understanding of effects of climate change in Alaska. Results provide a framework that other Arctic communities can use to assess risks and reduce economic damages due to climate change and provide examples to increase resilience. Research activities over four years include: (1) spatial modeling and mapping of natural hazards and their interactions; (2) gathering data to assess perceived risks, values at risk, and adaptation costs with interviews, property owner surveys, and citizen science; (3) economic modeling of costs and risks; and (4) developing in a series of scenario planning workshops an adaptive policy framework that can be used to adapt to and mitigate multiple hazards and reduce future costs and risks. The research helps partner communities make better-informed decisions regarding how and where to build and manage public and private infrastructure and finance public services. This framework can be used by other Arctic communities to assess risks and reduce economic damages due to climate change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.