NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: Arctic Urban Risks and Adaptations (AURA): a co-production framework for addressing multiple changing environmental hazards

航行新北极(NNA)是NSF的十大想法之一。NNA项目解决了快速变化的北极地区汇聚的科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大区域和全球的经济、安全和韧性提供信息。NNA增强了新的研究伙伴关系，从地方到国际范围，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合了共同生产的知识。这一奖项部分实现了这一目标。气候变化正在增加北极城市社区对自然灾害的脆弱性，如不稳定的永久冻土、野火和冬季降雨事件。这些危险将居民和财产置于危险之中，并造成经济成本，家庭、企业和政府必须适应这些相互作用的危险。这项研究正在开发详细的地图，显示过去几十年来，这三种自然灾害在阿拉斯加州安克雷奇市政府、费尔班克斯北极星区和加拿大育空地区怀特霍斯同时发生的演变，以及它们在未来40年可能发生的变化。由经济学家、冻土、火、天气、气候和环境科学家以及政策专家组成的跨学科研究团队对北极自然灾害及其对自然和已建环境和社会的影响进行跨学科研究。研究小组与地方政府和非政府组织(NGO)、土著团体、保险公司和居民密切合作，共同编写关于成本、风险以及为减轻和适应这些危害而采取的行动的知识。该团队和利益相关者合作，确定衡量危害对社会和建筑环境的影响的最佳方法，确定权衡和相互作用，开发多危害风险评估，并为未来的适应性规划生成选项。该项目是首批包括气候变化对私人和公共基础设施影响的项目之一，这一差距限制了人们对气候变化在阿拉斯加的影响的了解。结果提供了一个框架，可供其他北极社区用来评估风险和减少气候变化造成的经济损失，并为提高复原力提供了范例。四年的研究活动包括：(1)自然灾害及其相互作用的空间建模和绘图；(2)通过访谈、财产所有者调查和公民科学收集数据，以评估感知的风险、风险价值和适应成本；(3)成本和风险的经济建模；(4)在一系列情景规划讲习班上制定可用于适应和减轻多种灾害并减少未来成本和风险的适应性政策框架。这项研究帮助合作伙伴社区就如何以及在哪里建设和管理公共和私人基础设施以及为公共服务融资做出更明智的决策。这一框架可以被其他北极社区用来评估风险和减少气候变化造成的经济损失。这一裁决反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim. Climate change is increasing vulnerability of Arctic urban communities to natural hazards such as unstable permafrost, wildfire, and rain-in-winter events. These hazards put residents and property at risk and impose economic costs, and households, businesses, and governments must adapt to these interacting hazards. This research is developing detailed maps showing how the occurrence of these three natural hazards has evolved simultaneously in the Municipality of Anchorage and the Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska, and Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada over the past several decades, and how they might change over the next 40 years. The interdisciplinary research team of economists; permafrost, fire, weather, climate, and environmental scientists; and policy experts conducts transdisciplinary research on Arctic natural hazards and their impacts on the natural and built environments and society. The research team works closely with local governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), Indigenous groups, insurance companies, and residents to co-produce knowledge on the costs, risks, and actions taken to mitigate and adapt to these hazards. The team and stakeholders collaborate to determine optimal ways to measure the effects of hazards on society and the built environment, identify trade-offs and interactions, develop a multiple-hazard risk assessment, and generate options for future adaptive planning. This project is one of the first to include effects of climate change on private as well as public infrastructure, a gap which has limited the understanding of effects of climate change in Alaska. Results provide a framework that other Arctic communities can use to assess risks and reduce economic damages due to climate change and provide examples to increase resilience. Research activities over four years include: (1) spatial modeling and mapping of natural hazards and their interactions; (2) gathering data to assess perceived risks, values at risk, and adaptation costs with interviews, property owner surveys, and citizen science; (3) economic modeling of costs and risks; and (4) developing in a series of scenario planning workshops an adaptive policy framework that can be used to adapt to and mitigate multiple hazards and reduce future costs and risks. The research helps partner communities make better-informed decisions regarding how and where to build and manage public and private infrastructure and finance public services. This framework can be used by other Arctic communities to assess risks and reduce economic damages due to climate change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.