CAREER: Climate Controls on Hurricane Landfall via the Subtropical High

飓风登陆给社会带来重大风险。虽然我们可以提前几天预测飓风，但提前更长的预测时间对于更好地防范即将到来的危险是可取的。目前，季节性飓风预测能够熟练地让我们知道整个海洋盆地可能发生的飓风活动。然而，这样的预报并不能精确指出飓风可能袭击的沿海地区。在海洋上空，大尺度风型由围绕在副热带（或“副热带高压”）高气压中心的环流组成。这种模式发展非常缓慢，可以引导飓风靠近或远离海岸。在这里，该项目将调查这些副热带高压的演变及其与飓风路径和登陆的联系。新出现的结果可能会加强季节性飓风预报，并帮助我们减轻未来的飓风危害。该项目还旨在培养能够结合天气和气候信息的未来劳动力，以最大限度地减少环境风险并改善决策。研究目的是了解副热带高压与飓风登陆之间的共变性。该项目的目标是(1)量化全球副热带高压和飓风登陆的可变性，(2)评估这种关系与陆海温度对比和海面温度的影响。研究者将分析历史数据和当前气候模拟，并使用理想水行星气候模型和现实气候模型进行新的实验。教育目标是训练公民解决与天气和气候有关的问题。该项目将与不同的合作伙伴一起制定一个基于队列的实习计划，为大气科学的本科生和研究生提供真实的体验。研究者将利用这次实习来评估技能差距，并加强大学大气科学课程，使学生更好地做好准备。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Hurricanes making landfall pose significant risks to society. While we can forecast hurricanes a few days ahead, having predictions with longer lead times is preferable for better preparation against the impending hazards. Currently, seasonal hurricane predictions are skillful at letting us know of the possible hurricane activity over the entire ocean basin. However, such forecast does not pinpoint the coastal vicinity where hurricane may strike. Over the ocean, the large-scale wind pattern consists of gyres around high atmospheric pressure centers in the subtropics (or “subtropical highs”). This pattern evolves very slowly and can steer hurricanes toward or away from the coast. Here, the project will investigate the evolution of these subtropical highs and their connection to hurricane tracks and landfall. Emerging results may enhance seasonal hurricane forecast and help us mitigate future hurricane hazards. The project also aims to develop a future workforce that can combine weather and climate information to minimize environmental risk and improve decision making. The research goal is to understand the co-variability between subtropical highs and hurricane landfall. The project objectives are to (1) quantify the variability of subtropical highs and hurricane landfalls globally, and (2) assess this relationship with respect to the impact land-sea temperature contrast and sea surface temperature. The investigator will analyze historical data and current climate simulations and conduct new experiments using idealized aqua-planet climate model and realistic climate models. The educational goal is to train citizens to address problems related to weather and climate. The project will develop a cohort-based internship program with various partners to provide real-word experiences for undergraduate and graduate students in atmospheric science. The investigator will use this internship to assess skill gaps and enhance university atmospheric science curricula to better prepare students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.