Preventing Civil War through International Action

大量文献表明，冲突管理活动-如调解和维持和平-有助于减少暴力和解决长期内战。参与这些活动的许多行为体-包括联合国、区域组织、非政府组织和各国政府-也表示致力于从一开始就防止暴力的发生。关于预防冲突是否、如何以及在何种情况下能够奏效的学术研究要少得多。该项目首次系统地研究了预防冲突行动在各种国内争端中的作用。该项目的调查结果将有助于了解内战发生的原因，以及国际行为体能否以及如何努力防止内战发生。研究结果将有助于为寻求了解这些动态的学者和有兴趣确定如何以及何时努力防止暴力冲突的政策制定者提供信息。该项目确定国际行为体是否、如何以及在何种情况下能够防止目前不属于暴力但有可能升级的争端中发生内战。该项目利用国家与持不同政见者互动的文献，提出了一个理论框架，研究这两个行为者之间的战略互动，以及国际行为者如何在大规模动员或内战爆发之前影响这种互动。该框架侧重于预防冲突的两种方式：说服持不同政见者和国家在这些争端中使用非暴力手段，以及帮助持不同政见者和平解决这些争端。这项研究将产生第一个关于预防冲突努力的全球数据集，这些冲突主要是非暴力的，但可能升级为内战。这些数据将被用来测试的理论论点的影响，并检查是否国际行动可以导致减少内战的可能性，如果是这样，哪些行动是最有效的在各种情况下。统计方法将使用匹配方法来比较升级为内战的可能性大致相似的争端，并审查这些争端中行动的影响。这些定量测试将辅以定性分析，旨在更直接地检查持不同政见者和国家决策的潜在机制和预防措施的影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

A large literature suggests that conflict management activities—such as mediation and peacekeeping — contribute to reductions in violence and the resolution of long-running civil wars. Many of the same actors that engage in these activities — including the United Nations, regional organizations, non-governmental organizations, and national governments — also express a commitment to working to prevent violence from occurring in the first place. There is much less academic research on whether, how, and in what contexts conflict prevention can work. This project presents the first systematic study of the effect of conflict prevention actions in a wide range of intrastate disputes. The project’s findings will contribute to understanding of why civil wars happen and whether and how international actors can work to prevent them from occurring. The results of the study will both help to inform scholars seeking to understand these dynamics and policymakers interested in determining how and when to work to prevent violent conflicts. This project identifies whether, how, and in what contexts international actors can prevent civil war in disputes that are not currently violent, but have the potential for escalation. Drawing on literature on state-dissident interactions, the project presents a theoretical framework examining the strategic interaction between these two actors and how international actors can influence this interaction, before mass mobilization or civil war breaks out. This framework focuses on two ways that conflict prevention can work: by convincing dissidents and states to use nonviolent means in these disputes, and by helping dissidents resolve these disputes peacefully. This research will produce the first global dataset on conflict prevention efforts for disputes that are primarily nonviolent but can escalate to civil war. These data will be used to test implications of the theoretical argument and to examine whether international action can lead to a reduced likelihood of civil war, and if so, which actions are most effective in various contexts. The statistical approach will use matching methods to compare disputes that are generally similar in the likelihood of escalation to civil war and to examine the effect of actions in these disputes. These quantitative tests will be supplemented with qualitative analysis designed to more directly examine the underlying mechanisms and effects of preventive actions on dissident and state decision-making.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.