Understanding Civil War from Pre- to Post-War Stages: A Comparative Approach

内战，或发生在国家边界内的战争，是当今武装冲突的主要形式。内战每年造成无数人因暴力、破坏和贫困而死亡，使受冲突影响的人口流离失所，阻碍可持续发展并助长资源开采。战争给人类、政治、经济和环境造成了严重的代价。然而，对于冲突是如何演变成暴力的，内战是如何随着时间的推移而演变的，以及为什么有些会复发，而另一些却不会，我们仍然知之甚少。为了对这一紧迫的全球问题做出更明智的回应，本研究认为，我们需要了解内战是如何在战前、战时和战后冲突阶段展开的。本研究背离了将内战作为孤立于更广泛冲突的现象的传统分析，并遵循一个单独的逻辑，通过国家、非国家团体和外部行动者之间不断发展的相互作用，将内战作为一个过程来探索，该过程将战前、战时和战后的冲突阶段联系起来。把内战作为一个过程来考察，就会发现内战从战前到战后都遵循着不同的道路，需要不同的应对措施。例如，在国家能力薄弱的情况下开始的战争在持续时间、严重程度和结果上都不同于之前长期被群体边缘化的战争。外部支持可以改变这些战争的发展方式并延长战斗时间。预防、应对和重建受冲突影响社会的努力应以这种变化和变化为基础。为了理解内战所遵循的不同路径，该研究将对八个内战案例进行严格设计的定性分析。一组高素质的研究人员将参与协调实地工作，收集和分析新的主要和次要数据，涉及三组问题：内战爆发的不同途径是什么？a.冲突是如何演变成暴力的？b.战前非国家团体是如何动员和组织起来的？c.国家在内战爆发中扮演了什么角色？这项研究将探讨发生在以下地区的内战：二是国家能力薄弱，国家内部碎片化；2 .自发的群众动员和国家镇压以应对动乱；参与暴力斗争的有组织的社会运动；andiv。激进政治团体的活动。分析这些路径将有助于了解内战可能从哪里开始以及如何发展。内战的不同路径如何塑造战争的动力和结果？在战争开始时，参与者的性质和部队的分布如何影响战斗？战斗是如何随着时间的推移而变化的？c.区域影响和外部支持在这些变化中的作用是什么？研究将探讨不断变化的内部和外部条件，包括：v。引入外部支撑；andvi。内部动员和筹资方面的变化。识别这些变化将有助于了解哪些因素可以延长和加剧战斗。内战的动态和结果如何影响战后的和平潜力？a.某些战争结果是否比其他战争结果更有利于战后和平建设？内战结束后，不同的道路上会出现什么形式的“和平”？如何解释内战后暴力事件的反复发生？本研究将探讨两种类型的内战结果：胜利;andviii。协商解决。确定这些结果对战后和平的影响将有助于了解暴力可能再次发生的地方以及如何使当地行为者参与防止暴力发生。关于战前冲突如何与内战的爆发相关，战争的爆发如何影响其发展，以及战争的动态和结果如何塑造战后和平的潜力的研究结果将有助于区分需要不同反应的战前到战后阶段，并为国际组织建立一个强大的政策工具包。

Civil wars, or wars that take place within state borders, are the dominant form of armed conflict today. Every year civil wars generate numerous deaths from violence, destruction and poverty, displace conflict affected populations, halt sustainable development and contribute to resource exploitation. The human, political, economic and environmental costs of war are severe. Yet, we still know little about how conflicts turn violent, how civil wars evolve over time and why some recur while others do not. To develop better informed responses to this pressing global problem this study argues that we need to understand how civil wars unfold across the pre-war, war-time and post-war stages of conflict. This study departs from traditional analyses of civil war as phenomenon that is isolated from the broader conflict and follows a separate logic to explore civil war as a process that connects the pre-war, war-time and post-war stages of conflict through evolving interactions between the state, non-state groups and external actors. Examining civil war as a process shows that civil wars follow different paths from the pre- to post-war stages that require distinct responses. For example, wars that start in the context of weak state capacity differ in duration, severity and outcomes from those preceded by long-term group marginalisation. External support can change how these wars develop and prolong the fighting. Efforts to prevent, react and rebuild conflict affected societies should be based on this variation and change.To understand different paths that civil wars follow, the study will undertake a rigorously designed qualitative analysis of eight cases of civil war. A team of highly qualified researchers will engage in coordinated fieldwork to collect and analyse new primary and secondary data on three sets of questions:Q1. What are the different paths to civil war onset? a. How does conflict turn violent? b. How do non-state groups mobilise and organise before the war? c. What role does the state play in civil war onset?The study will explore civil wars that emerge from:i. weak state capacity and fragmentation within the state;ii. spontaneous mass mobilisation and state repression in response to the unrest;iii. organized social movements that engage in violent contention; andiv. activities of militant political groups.Analysing these paths will help understand where civil wars can start and how they will develop.Q2. How do the different paths to civil war shape the dynamics and outcomes of wars?a. How do the nature of actors and distribution of forces at the war's onset shape the fighting?b. (How) does the fighting change over time? c. What is the role of regional influence and external support in these changes?The study will explore changing internal and external conditions, including:v. introduction of external support; andvi. changes in internal mobilisation and funding.Identifying these changes will help understand what factors can protract and intensify the fighting.Q3. How do the civil war dynamics and outcomes shape the post-war potential for peace? a. Do some war outcomes facilitate post-war peacebuilding more than others?b. What forms of "peace" emerge from the different paths when civil wars end?c. What explains the recurrence of violence after civil wars?The study will explore two types of civil war outcomes:vii. victory; andviii. negotiated settlement.Identifying the effects of these outcomes on post-war peace will help understand where violence can recur and how to engage local actors to prevent it.The findings on how the pre-war conflict is related to the civil war's onset, how the onset of war affects its development and how the dynamics and outcomes of war shape the post-war potential for peace will help differentiate between the pre- to post-war stages that require distinct responses and build a robust policy toolkit for international organisations.