Supporting Sustainable Evolution of Electrical Energy Systems via Closed-Loop Consumer Behavior and Market System Modeling

能源和电力系统产生许多社会效益，例如可靠和负担得起的电力，就业和经济增长，但它们也产生有害排放和废物。减少电网对环境影响的两种方法是（1）促进太阳能和风能等可再生能源的更大渗透，以及（2）通过行为改变减少电能消耗总量。然而，这种大规模的变化引起了对劳动力，能源成本和电网可靠性的二次影响的重要问题和担忧。因此，电网改造的成功将受到包括政府监管机构、电力公司和消费者在内的各种利益相关者的闭环决策的影响。将其视为一个多代理系统，该建议旨在产生有关利益相关者行为的新知识，并探索电力系统建模的新方法。一个改进的系统模型，结合了对消费者行为的深刻理解，可以支持生产者和政策决策有关的电源组合，针对消费者的信息，激励措施的可用性，可再生能源计划的产品，和其他政策的选择。通过更明智的生产者和政策决策，美国电力行业将能够以更安全，更有弹性和可持续的方式增长。此外，该提案将通过跨学科教学，学生研究机会和会议研讨会来促进跨学科教育，以促进合作研究，从而为未来的美国劳动力提供更全面的毕业生。该研究涉及三个方面：（1）消费者行为实验，（2）多代理市场系统建模，（3）综合消费者和市场模拟测试的可用性和价值的决策和权衡分析。在第一阶段，消费者行为实验将研究电力选择，调查社会规范和激励措施如何影响消费者的能源使用，购买更高效产品的可能性，以及选择可再生能源信贷计划的可能性。这将导致更好地了解消费者对电力选择的态度和行为。Thrust 1的这些实验结果将为Thrust 2中基于代理的电力系统模型的创建提供信息，该模型将用于研究不同的假设，模型架构和政策场景如何影响系统级结果。这将为模拟能源市场系统的复杂系统建模方法和结构的适用性以及基线政策和干预分析结果提供证据。最后，与能源行业和政策决策者在推力3中进行的实验小插曲将检查模拟的可用性，感知价值和关键发现，既验证系统模型，又为未来的工作提供方向。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

Energy and power systems generate many societal benefits, such as reliable and affordable electricity, jobs, and economic growth, but they also produce harmful emissions and waste. Two approaches to reducing the environmental impacts of the electricity grid are (1) to promote a greater penetration of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power, and (2) to reduce the total amount of electric energy consumption through behavioral changes. However, such large-scale changes raise important questions and concerns about secondary impacts on the workforce, energy costs, and grid reliability. Thus, the success of an electricity grid transformation will be influenced by the closed-loop decision-making of various stakeholders, including government regulators, power companies, and consumers. Viewing this as a multi-agent system, this proposal seeks to generate new knowledge on stakeholder behavior and explore novel approaches for electricity system modeling. An improved system model that incorporates a deep understanding of consumer behavior can support producer and policy decision-making regarding the portfolio of power sources, messages directed toward consumers, availability of incentives, renewable energy program offerings, and other policy alternatives. Through more informed producer and policy decisions, the U.S. electricity sector will be able to grow in a more secure, resilient, and sustainable manner. In addition, this proposal will advance interdisciplinary education through cross-disciplinary teaching, student research opportunities, and conference workshops to promote collaborative research, thereby contributing to more well-rounded graduates for the future U.S. workforce. The proposed research involves three thrusts: (1) consumer behavior experiments, (2) multi-agent market system modeling, and (3) integrated consumer and market simulation testing for usability and value to decision-making and trade-off analysis. In Thrust 1, consumer behavior experiments will examine electricity choices, investigating how social norms and incentives impact consumer energy use, the likelihood of purchasing more efficient products, and the likelihood of opting into renewable energy credit programs. This will lead to an improved fundamental understanding of consumer attitudes and behaviors related to electricity choices. These experimental results from Thrust 1 will inform the creation of an agent-based model of an electricity system in Thrust 2, which will be used to examine how different assumptions, model architectures, and policy scenarios affect the system-level outcomes. This will provide evidence on the suitability of complex systems modeling approaches and structures for simulating energy market systems, as well as baseline policy and intervention analysis results. Finally, experimental vignettes conducted with energy industry and policy decision-makers in Thrust 3 will examine the simulation's usability, perceived value, and key findings, serving to both validate the system model and provide directions for future work.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.