Advancing Genocide Forecasting: New Definition, Methods, and Forecasts

该项目打算开发一种新的预测方法，以提高国际社会和澳大利亚预测和防止种族灭绝的能力。该项目旨在以2009年以来暴行预测项目的工作为基础，并将政治学和计算机科学结合在一起。为了解决众所周知的问题，该项目计划将种族灭绝重新定义为极端有针对性的大规模杀戮，从而提高定义的清晰度和数据的可靠性。该项目将更好的概念与尖端的计算机科学预测方法相结合，旨在产生新的年度预测，进一步提高准确性。预期的项目成果将为防止种族灭绝提供新的理解和更好的工具。

The project intends to develop a new method of forecasting to improve the international community’s and Australia's ability to anticipate and prevent genocide. The project is designed to build on work in the Atrocity Forecasting Project since 2009, and to bring together political science and computer science. To address well-known problems the project plans to reconceptualise genocide as extreme targeted mass killing, increasing definitional clarity and data reliability. Combining a better concept with cutting-edge computer science forecasting approaches, the project aims to produce new annual forecasts, pushing accuracy further. Expected project outcomes will provide new understanding and a better tool for genocide prevention.