CNH2-S: Interactive Dynamics of Stream Restoration and Flood Resilience in a Changing Climate

上密西西比河流域近年来洪水越来越频繁，这一趋势几乎肯定会恶化。威斯康星州的基卡普河和库恩溪流域在过去十年中经历了至少三次百年一遇的洪水，迫切需要了解如何解决和适应这一新的现实。作为回应，这个CNH 2-S项目汇集了来自威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校和印第安纳州大学的研究人员，他们在生物物理和社会方法方面具有跨学科的专业知识，以恢复河流和洪水。研究团队将与基卡普和库恩河流域的当地合作伙伴密切合作，与当地决策者，土地和水资源管理者以及农业土地所有者进行访谈和在线调查，以了解对河流恢复的态度变化，并为开发新的洪水模型提供信息，这些模型从河流的单个部分到整个流域。这些模型将通过一系列互动式讲习班加以完善，从而形成了解当地情况的模型。项目小组强调公众参与，这将使他们能够分析和推广可行和有效的农业最佳管理做法和防洪战略，有助于这些农村和资源不足社区的地方抗灾规划，这个CNH 2-S项目将提出四个嵌套的问题，询问内部和外部之间的多标量动态反馈，河流恢复的做法，高地保护措施，洪峰，和社区层面的影响和应对气候变化：（1）如何更频繁和更激烈的洪水横跨上游密西西比河流域改变研究流域的河流恢复的做法，连接或打破恢复和恢复力之间的潜在联系？(2)溪流恢复措施，特别是河道形态的变化，如何影响社区一级的气候对洪水的脆弱性？(3)河流管理者、洪水决策者和土地所有者如何在流域尺度上平衡与洪水脆弱性和恢复力相关的社会环境权衡？(4)迭代、多标量水文和水力建模能否与定性和参与性方法相结合，以支持基于农户的洪水恢复力规划，从而实现社会生态系统（SES）转型？基卡普和库恩溪（WI）流域溪流恢复项目的密度，加上洪水事件的长期影响和加速频率以及社区对洪水规划的兴趣，将使研究团队能够与当地合作伙伴共同创造知识，扩展现有的社会生态系统（SES）恢复力研究：响应最近的呼吁，提供社区一级气候脆弱性和应对气候变化的经验研究，同时注重恢复和复原力之间的创新联系，考虑社会经济地位转型的新机会。该方法推进了对洪水水文学和水力学对多标量洪水管理干预措施的复杂响应的理解，通过将洪水水力学和流域水文学方法与河流洪泛区恢复相互作用并与高地实践进行比较以减少洪峰，填补了一个重大空白。这种多尺度方法以利益攸关方参与机制为基础，提供了一种可测试的、方法创新的、以伙伴为中心的、洪水风险管理的以复原力为中心的系统方法，可以推进研究流域和其他社会经济领域的复原力规划。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为是值得支持的，使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估。

The Upper Mississippi River Basin has seen increasingly frequent flooding in recent years, a trend that will almost certainly worsen. Wisconsin’s Kickapoo River and Coon Creek watersheds have experienced at least three 100-year floods in the last decade, and there is an urgent need to understand how to address and adapt to this new reality. In response, this CNH2-S project brings together researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and Indiana University with cross-disciplinary expertise in biophysical and social approaches to stream restoration and flooding. Working closely with local partners in the Kickapoo and Coon Creek watersheds, the research team will use interviews and online surveys with local decision-makers, land and water managers, and agricultural landowners to learn about changing attitudes towards stream restoration and to inform the development of new flood models that work from the level of an individual section of stream to an entire watershed. Those models will be refined through a series of interactive workshops, resulting in locally informed models. The project team’s emphasis on public engagement will allow them to analyze and promote workable and effective agricultural best management practices and flood prevention strategies that can contribute to local resilience planning in these rural and under-resourced communities, and offer a model for other communities faced with persistent flooding.This CNH2-S project will ask four nested questions that interrogate the multi-scalar dynamic feedbacks between in-stream restoration practices, upland conservation measures, flood peaks, and community-level impacts of and responses to climate change: (1) How does more frequent and more intense flooding across the Upper Mississippi River Basin alter stream restoration practices in the study watersheds, linking or breaking the potential connection between restoration and resilience? (2) How do stream restoration practices, particularly changes in channel morphology, impact community-level climate vulnerability to flooding? (3) How do stream managers, flood decision makers, and landowners balance socio-environmental tradeoffs related to flood vulnerability and resilience across the reach and watershed scales? (4) Can iterative, multi-scalar hydrologic and hydraulic modeling be incorporated with qualitative and participatory approaches to support stakeholder-based flood resilience planning to enable social-ecological system (SES) transformations? The density of stream restoration projects in the Kickapoo and Coon Creek (WI) watersheds, coupled with long-term impacts and accelerating frequency of flood events and community interest in flood planning, will allow the research team to co-create knowledge with local partners that extends existing research in social-ecological systems (SES) resilience: heeding recent calls to offer empirical studies of community-level climate vulnerability and responses to climate change, while focusing on innovative linkages between restoration and resilience to consider new opportunities for SES transformations. The approach advances understandings of the complex responses of flood hydrology and hydraulics to multi-scalar flood management interventions, filling a significant gap by relating flood hydraulic and watershed hydrologic approaches to investigate how stream- floodplain restoration interacts and compares with upland practices to reduce flood peaks. This multi-scalar approach, with its grounding in stakeholder engagement mechanisms, offers a testable, methodologically innovative, partner-centered, resilience-focused systems approach to flood risk management that can advance resilience planning in the study watersheds and in other socio-environmental systems facing rapid and uncertain changes related to climate change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.