Collaborative Research: Cognitive, social, and institutional dynamics of decision-making in complex hazard-prone environments

近年来，野火对美国各地的社区构成了巨大的威胁。该项目评估了地方层面的野火保护规划过程如何影响社会互动，从而在地方和地区层面上实施风险缓解措施。这些地方规划进程面临一系列挑战，这些挑战涉及需要在多个空间和行政尺度(例如，跨越公共和私人土地)协调减少风险的努力，并促进不同利益攸关方群体之间的合作，这些利益攸关方在管理易发生野火的景观(例如，灭火、木材生产、保护受威胁物种)方面具有不同的目标。该项目有助于理解风险治理网络如何影响协作规划过程中的政策学习及其产生的决策范围，社会过程(如学习、合作和竞争)如何影响这些决策的执行，以及相互依存的决策过程如何影响区域范围内风险缓解的效率。了解认知、社会和政策过程之间的相互作用对于降低社区对野火的脆弱性至关重要。通过与科罗拉多州森林恢复研究所和其他关键团体的伙伴关系，该项目让政策制定者、外展专业人员和其他利益相关者参与倡议，为设计沟通战略和能力建设计划做出贡献，以减少野火风险。该项目解决了在科学理解分散风险治理网络结构如何影响政策学习和决策以及协作小组执行决策的能力方面的理论和经验差距。主要研究问题包括：风险治理网络如何影响协作规划过程中的政策学习？风险治理网络如何影响风险缓解计划的规模和跨越边界的潜力？社会进程如何影响执行一致性，特别是大规模和跨国界风险缓解计划的执行状况？风险治理网络如何影响区域范围内风险缓解的效率？与许多政策学习研究中使用的抽象和泛化的策略学习测量不同，拟议的研究通过在协作决策过程的认知地图中通过系统思维的量化指标来评估学习，从而开辟了新的领域。在此过程中，本研究通过应用网络科学的工具和视角来评估认知地图，在方法论上做出了重大贡献。同样，对执行情况的严格评估能够评估分散治理系统的绩效如何根据决策过程之间相互依存的模式而变化。这项研究对于开发一个更完整的模型，了解认知、社会和制度动态如何塑造风险治理系统，并最终塑造社区和地区的韧性至关重要。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Recent years have demonstrated the substantial threat that wildfires pose to communities across the U.S. This project evaluates how local-level wildfire protection planning processes shape social interaction and consequently the implementation of risk mitigation measures at both local and regional scales. These local planning processes confront a range of challenges that relate to the need to coordinate risk mitigation efforts at multiple spatial and administrative scales (e.g., spanning public and private lands) and to promote cooperation among diverse stakeholder groups with distinct goals for managing wildfire-prone landscapes (e.g., fire suppression, timber production, protection for threatened species). This project improves understanding of how risk governance networks affect policy learning in collaborative planning processes and the scope of decisions they produce, how social processes (such as learning, cooperation, and competition) affect the implementation of those decisions, and how interdependent decision-making processes affect the efficiency of risk mitigation at regional scales. Understanding the interplay among cognitive, social, and policy processes is critical for reducing the vulnerability of communities to wildfire. Through partnerships with the Colorado Forest Restoration Institute and other key groups, the project engages policy makers, outreach professionals, and other stakeholders in initiatives that contribute to the design of communication strategies and capacity building programs to reduce wildfire risk.This project addresses theoretical and empirical gaps in scientific understanding of how the structure of decentralized risk governance networks affects policy learning and decision making, as well as the capacity of collaborative groups to implement decisions. Key research questions include: How do risk governance networks affect policy learning in collaborative planning processes? How do risk governance networks affect the scale and boundary-spanning potential of risk mitigation plans? How do social processes affect implementation conformance, and particularly the implementation status of large scale and boundary-spanning risk mitigation plans? How do risk governance networks affect the efficiency of risk mitigation at regional scales? In a departure from the abstract and generalized measures of policy learning used in much research on policy learning, the proposed research breaks new ground by evaluating learning through quantitative indicators of systems thinking in cognitive maps of collaborative decision-making processes. In so doing, the research makes significant methodological contributions through application of the tools and perspectives of network science to evaluate cognitive maps. Likewise, rigorous assessment of implementation enables evaluation of how the performance of decentralized governance systems varies according to patterns of interdependence among decision-making processes. This research is critical for developing a more complete model of how cognitive, social, and institutional dynamics shape risk governance systems, and ultimately the resilience of communities and regions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.