DDRIE: Economic Value of Crime Control: Evidence from a Large Investment in Police Infrastructure.

犯罪行为的经济模型主要关注治安投资对犯罪的影响，而忽视了这种投资的更广泛的社会效益。这项研究项目利用住房市场来研究对警察基础设施的大量投资对当地福利的影响。该项目采用基于这三个大城市警察局开放的研究设计，研究公共安全投资对犯罪和房地产市场的影响。具体地说，它衡量了警察投资、减少暴力和非暴力犯罪以及附近住宅物业价格变化之间的关系。初步结果表明，可观察到的警察存在减少了总体犯罪率。然而，影响是局部的；它在不到半英里的范围内，在建警察局的地区之外没有明显的影响。然后，研究人员使用警察局的建设来计算他们对当地房价和新建筑的影响。研究人员发现，有统计意义的证据表明，警察局的开放提高了住房价值。这一研究项目的结果提供了关于警察对更广泛的公民福利的影响的见解，并为如何有效地进行地方政府投资提供了投入。这个DDRIE研究项目利用多个城市社区的新警察局建设来评估警察基础设施对当地社区福利的因果影响。该项目由两部分组成-警察局建设对犯罪率的影响，以及治安对住房市场的影响。本研究利用社区和城市派出所建设的准实验变量，对举报犯罪的短期和长期横截面和跨期变化进行了研究，发现派出所建设导致了当地犯罪率的下降。该项目的这一部分还探讨了警察局建设影响犯罪减少的机制，测试了威慑和丧失能力的渠道。项目的第二部分使用特征定价模型来估计犯罪减少对财产价值的影响，从而恢复犯罪的价格弹性。这是第一次尝试评估为避免犯罪而支付费用的意愿。该项目开发了一项犯罪控制的福利分析，其中考虑到了个人的异质性和排序。这项研究提供了关于治安对更广泛的公民福利的影响的见解，并为高效的地方政府投资决策提供了投入。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Economic models of criminal behavior have focused mainly on the effects of investment in policing on crime while ignoring the broader societal benefits of such investments. This research project uses the housing market to study the local welfare effects of a large investment in police infrastructure. Applying a research design based on the openings of police stations in the three large cities, the project studies the effects of public safety investments on crime and housing markets. Specifically, it measures the relationship among police investments, reductions in violent and non-violent crimes and changes in the prices of nearby residential properties. Initial results show that observable police presence reduce overall crime. However, the effect is local; it is within less than half of a mile, with no appreciable impact outside the area where the police stations are built. The researchers then use police station construction to calculate their effects on local housing prices and new construction. The researchers find statistically significant evidence that police stations’ openings increase housing values. The results of this research project provides insights on the effects of police on broader welfare of citizens as well as provide inputs into how to make local government investments efficiently. This DDRIE research project leverages new police station construction in neighborhoods in a number of cities over time to estimate the causal effects of police infrastructure on welfare of local communities. The project consists of two parts---the effects of police station construction on crime rates, and the effects of policing on housing markets. Using quasi-experimental variation in police station construction in neighborhoods and cities, this research project studies the short- and long- term cross-sectional and intertemporal changes in reported crime and finds that police station construction leads to reduction in local crime rates. This part of the project also explores the mechanisms through which police station construction affects reduction in crime, testing both deterrence and incapacitation channels. The second part of the project uses a hedonic pricing model to estimate the effects of crime reduction on property values, thus recovering the price elasticity of crime. This is a first attempt to estimate willingness to pay to avoid crime. The project develops a welfare analysis of crime control that accounts for individual heterogeneity and sorting. This research provides insights on the effects of policing on broader welfare of citizens as well as provide inputs into efficient local government investments decision making.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.