RAPID: Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Crime and Corrections Populations

轶事新闻报道清楚地表明，COVID-19大流行对美国的犯罪以及监狱和监狱人口产生了深远的影响。 大多数犯罪的短期减少与各种基于机会的犯罪理论相一致，街道上的人减少了，去酒吧等地方的人也减少了。关于家庭暴力增加的报告与基于机会的理论以及基于压力的理论相一致。然而，从长远来看，随着人们受到的经济影响越来越大，报告的犯罪减少趋势可能会发生逆转。在这一流行病期间，地方监狱和看守所限制收押和加速释放对犯罪和感染率的影响也是未知的，具有政策意义。 将在县和市一级对犯罪和监狱人口的影响进行分析，并在州一级对监狱人口的影响进行分析。 为了估计这些影响，我们的目标是做差异中的差异类型分析。该项目的主要目标是，在这一流行病今后可能再次流行之前，完成对犯罪和惩戒人口所受影响的快速分析，该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过利用基金会的智力价值进行评估，被认为值得支持和更广泛的影响审查标准。

Anecdotal news accounts make clear that the COVID-19 pandemic is having profound impacts on crime and on jail and prison populations in the United States. The short-term reductions in most crimes are consistent with various opportunity-based theories of crime with fewer people on the streets and visiting places like bars. The reports of increased domestic violence align with opportunity-based theories and in addition strain-based theories. Over the longer term, however, the reported crime reduction trends may reverse themselves as people become more economically impacted. Impacts of restricted admissions and accelerated releases from local jails and prisons on crime and on infection rates, within these facilities during this pandemic, are also unknown and of policy interest. Analyses will be conducted at the level of county and city for crime and jail population impacts and at the level of the state for prison population impacts. To estimate these effects we aim to do difference-in-difference type analyses. The main objectives of this project are to provide a rapid analysis of these impacts on crime and corrections populations to be completed prior to a possible future resurgence of the pandemic, and to share with policymakers rigorous analyses that will assist in informing their decisions in dealing with the crisis.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.