Collaborative Research on the Deterrent Effects of Formal and Informal Sanctions

威慑研究更多地关注犯罪行为的成本，而不是回报方面。此外，大多数关于威慑的研究都是在远离个人认为犯罪的时间点来衡量制裁的威胁。但基于理性选择的模型假定威慑效果是即时的，而不是延迟的。此外，大多数威慑研究没有考虑到围绕犯罪行为的广泛的背景因素。为了克服这些不足，纳金教授将与马里兰大学的雷蒙德·帕特诺斯特合作，将判断情景的使用与传统调查方法相结合，分析威慑理论中的问题。这一方法创新将能够在非常具体和受控的情况下衡量对犯罪的风险认知和意图。此外，这种创新的方法将允许审查犯罪的成本和收益与一个人的犯罪意图之间的即时关系。具体地说，这项研究将使男大学生接触到与性侵犯、盗窃和酒后驾车相关的假设情景，这些犯罪行为显示出这一人群相当大的犯罪倾向。此外，该调查工具还能够收集与惩罚的威慑作用有关的一系列变量的数据，包括正式制裁与非正式制裁的威慑效果、惩罚的确定性与惩罚的严重性、道德信仰的影响以及对制裁风险的看法的决定因素。分析技术将能够单独分析每一种犯罪类别的数据。这项研究将检验情景方法对威慑研究的有用性，并有望促进关于惩罚威慑效果的文献中一系列反复出现但尚未解决的问题的经验知识。

Deterrence research has focused more on the costs than the rewards side of criminal offending. Also, most of the research on deterrence has measured the threat of sanctions at a time far removed from the point at which the individual considers the commission of an offense. But models based on rational choice assume deterrent effects to be instantaneous, not delayed. In addition, most deterrence research fails to take into account the wide range of contextual factors surrounding a criminal act. To overcome these deficiencies, Professor Nagin, in collaboration with Raymond Paternoster of the University of Maryland, will combine the use of judgement scenarios with traditional survey methods to analyze issues in deterrence theory. This methodological innovation will enable measurement of risk perceptions and intentions to offend under very specific and controlled circumstances. Also, this innovative approach will permit the examination of the instantaneous relationship between the costs and benefits of offending and one's intention to commit a criminal act. Specifically, the study will expose male college students to hypothetical situations related to sexual assault, theft and drunk driving, criminal acts that this population shows a considerable propensity to commit. Also, the survey instrument enables collection of data on a range of variables related to the deterrent effects of punishment, including the deterrent effect of formal versus informal sanctions, of the certainty versus the severity of punishment, the impact of moral beliefs, and the determinants of perceptions about risk of sanctions. The analytical techniques will enable analysis of the data for each crime category separately. The research will put to test the usefulness of the scenario method for deterrence research and holds promise for advancing empirical knowledge related to a series of recurring issues, yet unresolved, in the literature on the deterrent effects of punishment.