Collaborative Research on the Deterrent Effects of Formal and Informal Sanctions

威慑研究更多地关注成本，而不是回报 犯罪的一面。 此外，大多数关于 威慑在一个远为 从个人认为 犯罪的委员会。 但基于理性选择的模型 假设威慑效果是即时的，而不是延迟的。 在 此外，大多数威慑研究没有考虑到 围绕犯罪行为的各种背景因素。 到 克服这些缺陷，纳金教授，在合作与 马里兰州大学的雷蒙德·帕特诺斯特将联合收割机 使用传统调查方法的判断情景， 分析威慑理论中的问题。 这种方法论 创新将有助于衡量风险认知， 在非常具体和受控的情况下， 情节 此外，这种创新的方法将允许 审查成本与成本之间的瞬时关系， 犯罪的好处和犯罪的意图。 具体来说，这项研究将使男大学生接触到 与性侵犯、盗窃和醉酒有关的假设情况 驾驶，犯罪行为，这一人口显示出相当大的 倾向于承诺。 此外，调查工具使 收集与威慑有关的一系列变量的数据 惩罚的效果，包括正式制裁的威慑效果 与非正式制裁相比， 惩罚，道德信仰的影响，以及 对制裁风险的认识。 的分析技术 将能够分析每个犯罪类别的数据， 分开 这项研究将检验 威慑研究的情景方法，并有望 推进与一系列反复出现的 关于威慑作用的文献中尚未解决的问题 惩罚。

Deterrence research has focused more on the costs than the rewards side of criminal offending. Also, most of the research on deterrence has measured the threat of sanctions at a time far removed from the point at which the individual considers the commission of an offense. But models based on rational choice assume deterrent effects to be instantaneous, not delayed. In addition, most deterrence research fails to take into account the wide range of contextual factors surrounding a criminal act. To overcome these deficiencies, Professor Nagin, in collaboration with Raymond Paternoster of the University of Maryland, will combine the use of judgement scenarios with traditional survey methods to analyze issues in deterrence theory. This methodological innovation will enable measurement of risk perceptions and intentions to offend under very specific and controlled circumstances. Also, this innovative approach will permit the examination of the instantaneous relationship between the costs and benefits of offending and one's intention to commit a criminal act. Specifically, the study will expose male college students to hypothetical situations related to sexual assault, theft and drunk driving, criminal acts that this population shows a considerable propensity to commit. Also, the survey instrument enables collection of data on a range of variables related to the deterrent effects of punishment, including the deterrent effect of formal versus informal sanctions, of the certainty versus the severity of punishment, the impact of moral beliefs, and the determinants of perceptions about risk of sanctions. The analytical techniques will enable analysis of the data for each crime category separately. The research will put to test the usefulness of the scenario method for deterrence research and holds promise for advancing empirical knowledge related to a series of recurring issues, yet unresolved, in the literature on the deterrent effects of punishment.